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Former Maine public health chief Nirav Shah again showed a lead in the still-unsettled Democratic gubernatorial primary in a new poll released Wednesday.
Shah, who became a fixture across Maine as he led the state’s COVID-19 pandemic response, has been the frontrunner for months. He’s led public surveys and internal polls by his own campaign and by rival Democrats.
The poll released by Portland-based Pan Atlantic Research on Wednesday was the first independent survey of the race in months, showing Shah with 29% first-choice support, ahead of former energy executive Angus King III’s 24%. Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson had 12%, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows 10%, former House Speaker Hannah Pingree had 9% and 16% were undecided.
But those results belie a more complicated picture. Shah appeared in the top two on 39% of ballots, with King, Pingree and Bellows tightly stacked between 31% and 33%. Jackson was well behind by that measure at 18%, indicating that he has little ranked-choice support. This indicates a race that could turn sharply on second choices.
The survey comes less than three weeks before the Democrats face off in a primary and as the race heats with more advertising and divides over priorities taking shape in recent debates. Former lobbyist and federal official Bobby Charles, who has painted Shah and his rivals as wasteful Augusta insiders, led a field of seven Republicans in the same poll.
Shah faced criticism from Bellows and Jackson this week following a $650,000 ad campaign partly paid for by a New York-based group that supports school choice — at odds with the Maine teachers union that ranked Shah third in its April endorsements.
But Wednesday’s poll suggests Shah’s mix of name recognition, advertising and town halls across the state continues to pay off. He has led five polls, including the only public survey, tracked by The New York Times since January. Second place has varied between King, Pingree, Bellows and Jackson.
Pingree, who was endorsed by outgoing Gov. Janet Mills Tuesday, has advertised more than any of her rivals at $667,000. Shah has spent almost $580,000 on ads between January and June, with the $650,000 boost from 314 Action marks significant outside help just before the five-way primary.
Bellows and a political action committee backing Jackson have invested about $500,000 on ads over the same period, while King has booked $476,000 in ads this year, according to AdImpact.
While a household name, Shah, a Wisconsin native, would have less time in Maine than anyone elected governor in the modern era. He came here in 2019 to lead Maine’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention and was based in Atlanta for nearly two years as the No. 2 official at the U.S. CDC.
Though the candidates have largely agreed on standing up to President Donald Trump on a host of issues, occasional fireworks over campaign tactics and divides over housing, taxes or education policies have arisen in recent months. Maine’s campaign finance watchdog has reviewed Shah, Pingree and Jackson over using a legal loophole to give instructions to outside groups to create ads in their favor.
Pan Atlantic surveyed 402 likely Democratic primary voters. The overall poll of 827 likely voters had an error margin of 3.7 percentage points.
