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Lawyer and former federal government official Bobby Charles further cemented his frontrunner status in the Republican gubernatorial primary in a new poll released less than three weeks before Election Day.
Charles leads a field of seven Republican primary candidates with 36% support, according to a survey released Wednesday by Portland-based Pan Atlantic Research. Entrepreneur Jonathan Bush was second at 20%, followed by former Maine Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason at 13%. A whopping 22% of voters were still undecided.
The poll comes 20 days before the high-stakes ranked-choice primary as Republicans aim to face one of five Democrats fighting for the chance to replace outgoing Gov. Janet Mills. Former Maine public health chief Nirav Shah has led in several polls since the winter and maintained that position in the Pan Atlantic survey Wednesday.
Reining in spending in Augusta, overhauling the state’s education priorities and improving Maine’s business climate have been focal points in a GOP contest. Without much public polling since February — when Charles led second-place Mason by 16 percentage points — the race has intensified with clashing personalities and allegations of ethics violations as the candidates seek to distinguish themselves while collectively trying to topple Charles.
Charles has faced increased criticism from his opponents and lawmakers in his own party that his promises to slash the Augusta budget are outlandish and that he may be too much of a conservative firebrand to win a general election in a Democratic-leaning state.
Several candidates bashed him for skipping multiple debates, and Bush has criticized both his lobbying career and his work as a government official, citing a Bangor Daily News report on federal audits of State Department work in the Middle East on Charles’ watch.
But the latest poll suggests Republican primary voters haven’t been swayed from backing Charles. His consistent social media presence and visits across the state since announcing his campaign more than a year ago have helped him hold an early lead in polling.
The lobbyist and federal official has spent a small fraction of some of his wealthier and political action committee-backed rivals on advertising. Charles has booked less than $183,000 in TV ads between May and the end of June and has focused heavily on AI-fueled digital advertising.
A group backing Mason has spent $3.8 million on ads so far, while Bush’s campaign and a supporting PAC have booked almost $2.9 million in ads, according to AdImpact data. Former fitness executive Ben Midgley, who won a non-scientific poll that stirred infighting last month and is backed by former Gov. Paul LePage’s inner circle, has loaned his campaign $750,000.
But Midgley was only at 2% of first choices in the survey. Entrepreneur Owen McCarthy, businessman Robert Wessels and real estate executive David Jones were all at or under 4% in the survey of 287 likely Republican primary voters. The overall poll of 827 likely voters had an error margin of 3.7 percentage points.
