Chainlink is struggling below $10 as selling pressure and broader market uncertainty keep the price pinned beneath a resistance level that has capped every recovery attempt in recent weeks. The price action is frustrating — but data from analyst MorenoDV has identified a structural development in the exchange flow data that reframes what the current weakness is actually occurring against.
Binance currently custodies approximately 85.1 million LINK worth roughly $766 million — representing 66.4% of the 128.26 million LINK held across all exchanges combined. That concentration is the first structural fact that changes how any Binance-specific LINK flow data should be interpreted. When two-thirds of all exchange-held LINK sits on a single venue, extreme netflow days on that venue are not reflecting broad market behavior. They are Binance-specific imbalances that effectively set the supply tone for the entire LINK market.
The reserve chart that MorenoDV examines tells a clean and directional story across a multi-year timeframe. Since the 2022 to 2023 peaks when Binance reserves approached 145 million LINK, the holdings have tracked a well-defined descending channel and now sit near the lower boundary at approximately 85 million. The intermittent upward spikes visible in the data are real but temporary — bursts rather than trend reversals. The dominant behavioral pattern across the entire period is coins leaving the platform.
The netflow data confirms the mechanism behind that structural decline — and what it reveals about who is moving LINK and why changes the interpretation of the current price weakness considerably.
Inflow Spikes Are Noise
The MorenoDV analysis draws the distinction that prevents the intermittent inflow bursts from being misread as accumulation events. Positive netflow spikes in LINK’s Binance data cluster around volatile periods — moments when price is already moving. And the pattern that follows them is more consistent with sell pressure arriving than with genuine buying conviction building.
Inflow-heavy spikes have more frequently been followed by weaker closes over the subsequent one to three days than by price strength. The behavioral interpretation is straightforward: deposits arriving ahead of sell pressure or redistribution activity rather than reflecting holders moving coins onto the exchange to buy more. The timing of inflows relative to price weakness confirms the direction of intent more often than not.
The critical distinction the analysis establishes is between inflow activity and accumulation. LINK is frequently deposited to Binance and then withdrawn shortly after. Moving to self-custody wallets or rival venues rather than converting into exchange selling. The result is a pattern of short-term inflow noise sitting above a reserve line that keeps drifting structurally lower. Regardless of the temporary spikes that periodically interrupt the trend.
The structural decline on Binance is not being driven by any single event or any cluster of inflow bursts. It is the cumulative expression of a market where the dominant behavior — coins leaving Binance permanently — has persisted through every temporary inflow spike without reversing the underlying direction. That persistent structural outflow is the signal. Everything else is noise sitting on top of it.
Chainlink Stuck At Critical Long-Term Support
On the weekly timeframe, Chainlink remains trapped in a prolonged downtrend that has defined most of the price action since the late-2024 highs near $30. LINK currently trades around $9, a level that has repeatedly acted as a major support zone throughout 2025 and 2026. While sellers continue to dominate the broader structure, the chart suggests that bears are struggling to force a decisive breakdown below this area.
The most notable feature is the compression taking place around the $8.50–$9.50 range. After the sharp decline from the $25 region, LINK has spent several months building a base above support rather than continuing lower. This behavior often reflects a period of equilibrium between long-term buyers and sellers as the market searches for direction.
However, the trend remains technically bearish. LINK trades below the 50-week, 100-week, and 200-week moving averages, all of which continue to slope downward. The 50-week moving average near $14 and the 100-week moving average around $15.5 now represent major resistance levels that bulls must reclaim to confirm a structural trend reversal.
For now, $8.50 remains the key support to watch. Holding this level keeps the possibility of a long-term accumulation range intact. While a breakdown could expose the 2023 consolidation region between $6 and $7. Reclaiming $10.50 would be the first signal that buyers are regaining control.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
