Politics
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Progressive oyster farmer Graham Platner leads five-term Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins by seven percentage points in the latest public poll.
Platner, who recently became the presumptive Democratic nominee when outgoing Gov. Janet Mills suspended her bid, received 48% support compared with Collins’ 41% in a survey by Portland-based Pan Atlantic Research released Wednesday.
The poll of 402 likely Democratic voters showed 11% remain undecided, with Platner leading in the 1st Congressional District by 20 percentage points but Collins holding a 45% to 41% edge in the conservative-leaning 2nd District, where she dominated in the 2020 election to easily win statewide despite trailing in every single public poll.
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The 7-point lead for Platner was outside the poll’s margin of error of 3.7 percentage points, a strong showing for an insurgent campaign in a must-win race if Democrats hope to retake the U.S. Senate.
Republican groups backing Collins have booked more than $80 million in ads through Election Day, looking to expose a political newcomer and emphasize Collins’ years of experience and bringing federal dollars home to Maine. Since he effectively locked down the nomination, Collins allies have picked apart the old, offensive Reddit posts that were unearthed in October.
Collins has championed an independent streak and bipartisan image nationally, but Maine independents strongly favored Platner in the poll, 48% to 35%. The military veteran and other critics say Collins and the GOP at large cannot escape consistent support for President Donald Trump’s agenda and some of his most contentious actions. Platner has cast the race as a movement of the working class against entrenched politicians, lobbyists and corporations.
Platner’s net favorability rating was above water at 3 percentage points, while Collins’ favorability stood at -18 and Trump’s at -23. Amid a ceasefire in an unpopular war with Iran, high fuel prices and other signs of economic pain nationwide, the president’s approval recently dropped to the lowest point during his second term at 37%, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.
Platner, despite criticism from Mills and Republicans for his past posts on sexual assault, led Collins with women voters by almost 20 percentage points. Collins had a slight edge with men, 47% to 44%. The same gap could be seen in those with or without four-year college degrees: Platner led Collins 56% to 36% among those with degrees, while Collins eked out a 44% to 43% advantage among those without degrees.
More than $125 million in advertising time has been booked between January and November, already more than the 2020 race that shattered spending records. Platner, who already has support from unions and progressive lawmakers such as independent U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has seen increased support from national Democrats.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-New York, who recruited Mills to run, expressed support shortly after Mills dropped her bid. Platner still faces a June 9 Democratic primary against former government official and 2024 U.S. Senate nominee David Costello.
Collins’ campaign had at least $10 million in cash on hand after the end of March. That’s nearly double what she had at the same point in the last cycle, when she fended off a challenge from former state House Speaker Sara Gideon. Collins supporters are quick to point out that Gideon led in almost every public poll in 2020, before she won by almost 9 percentage points.
