A new poll suggests President Donald Trump could be making Maine one of the toughest environments in the country for Republicans while U.S. Sen. Susan Collins seeks a sixth term and Republicans fight to take back the Blaine House.
Two Democrats vying to oust Collins, outgoing Gov. Janet Mills and Sullivan oyster farmer and military veteran Graham Platner, led Collins in hypothetical November matchups in a Echelon Insights poll released Tuesday.
Platner’s campaign noted that the poll marked the ninth in a row that he’s led Collins. The senator’s supporters and critics alike note she’s long kept her seat after tough races, outpolling Trump by 57,000 votes despite trailing then-Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon in every poll.
But Trump’s approval rating sinking and Mainers more pessimistic than several other states about his leadership and the direction of the country, the survey suggested vulnerable Republicans face unique headwinds while Democrats try to take back a foothold in Congress.
Collins, who has Republican groups lining up tens of millions of dollars in supportive ads through November, is operating in the most anti-Trump state in the survey that focused on some of the major swing states in this year’s Senate elections.
Just 38% of the nearly 400 Mainers surveyed approve of Trump’s performance, compared to 61% who disapprove. Mills and Platner have sought to link Collins with Trump, while Republican ads have focused on her work on consensus issues. Several Democratic gubernatorial candidates are campaigning on combating the Trump administration, while several GOP hopefuls are fighting for Trump’s endorsement during an uncertain primary.
Two-thirds of Mainers said the country is on the wrong track. Less than 30% said the U.S. is headed in the right direction. That’s a worse outlook than in the more conservative states of Florida, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio, with Mainers feeling outsized pressure from inflation and energy costs.
A whopping 69% said food and groceries are hitting their personal finances, more than any other state surveyed. More than half said they were being squeezed by utilities, and 35% cited health care and insurance costs as the top financial concern.
Platner has become a major wild card in the race since entering last August as a political unknown and weathering October disclosures of offensive Reddit posts and a since-covered tattoo of a skull-and-crossbones symbol tied to Nazis. He is the prohibitive frontrunner in the June primary also featuring Mills and 2024 U.S. Senate nominee David Costello.
His floor in a November matchup with Collins looks to be rising. The Echelon poll found 38% of Mainers would definitely pick him over the incumbent. That was more than the 35% who said they would definitely vote for Collins in November and 30% for Mills.
Those candidates are still slugging it out in the June primary, with Mills making the argument that Republican ads will “make mincemeat” of Platner. Collins’ team is projecting optimism going into the heat of the campaign. Trump’s approval was even lower — at 36% — in one survey of Maine released around this time in 2020.
“Every single public poll last election showed [Sen.] Collins losing her re-election, and every single poll was wrong,” Shawn Roderick, Collins’ campaign spokesperson, said.
