Israeli forces are unlikely to move further out of Gaza for some time, according to Sky News’ military analyst, as he said there’s still “huge ambiguity” surrounding the ceasefire deal.
Speaking as a ceasefire to end the war in Gaza took effect on Friday, Professor Michael Clarke said skirmishes between the warring parties are likely, as Israel has made it “very clear” that any seemingly threatening actions would be met with a response.
Israel and Hamas on Thursday agreed to a first phase of a peace deal brokered by US President Donald Trump, and which aims to bring the two-year conflict to an end.
Under the agreement, Hamas have 72 hours to release all hostages, alive or dead, now the initial withdrawal of Israeli troops to the yellow line has been confirmed.
Israel and Hamas agree to peace deal – live updates
But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday also confirmed that Israel’s troops will remain in Gaza to keep up the pressure on Hamas until the group disarms – something the militant group is “fairly determined” not to do, Professor Clarke said.
The analyst said “the initial withdrawal line, which still leave them [IDF] in control of 50% of the Gaza Strip” was the “easy one to agree to”.
“In theory, they would then move back to another line which would give them only a smaller amount of territory,” he said, before Israeli troops move to a buffer zone at a later stage.
But Professor Clarke said: “I don’t think they are going to get much beyond that first line, that yellow line, for some time.”
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‘Huge ambiguity’
Referencing issues with the 20-point peace plan, Professor Clarke said: “The nearer we get down to points 18-19-20, the further away they begin to look.
“Netanyahu is making it pretty clear he doesn’t intend to enter into negotiations with the Palestinian Authority about a two-state solution, he spent 20 years of his life ruling out a two-state solution but that’s what the 20 points imply, so he is not going to go that far.
“So there’s a huge ambiguity about that.”
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Speaking of Hamas appearing resolved not to disarm or leave Gaza, Professor Clarke said: “They calculate, I think, that President Trump will be so anxious to keep this thing alive that he will tolerate that, just as he will tolerate the fact that Israelis don’t really want to enter into any long-term, formal negotiation.”
Who could make up a peacekeeping force?
“We still have no idea who is going to provide, say, a brigade of troops, I mean 5,000 troops, to move into Gaza and sit in the middle of a very volatile ceasefire,” Professor Clarke said, adding: “No one wants to do that.”
He said the “best possibilities” would be Turkish or Egyptian troops but they would need “quite a lot of inducements”.
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Speaking of the risks facing any forces which get deployed to Gaza, Professor Clarke said: “The danger is that if things start to go wrong, they will look as if they are helping the IDF to suppress guerrilla groups of Hamas, or they will just become a sort of shooting gallery for Hamas people and then the IDF might overreact.
“It’s a miserable situation for anybody and only the most disciplined troops can do it and nobody wants to do it so the US will have to lean on and induce quite heavily whoever is going to be part of this stabilisation force.”
Data journalist
The Israeli military has completed its initial withdrawal, less than 24 hours after the Israeli cabinet ratified the ceasefire deal.
This initial withdrawal saw the IDF pull back from Gaza’s major population centres, to an agreed perimeter ranging from 1.5km to 6.5km from the Israeli border.
Sky News analysis of satellite imagery over the past two weeks shows that this withdrawal line closely matches the position of the IDF’s active ground bases in the Gaza Strip.
Out of 40 observed bases active since late September, only four sit beyond the line of withdrawal and will therefore need to be vacated.
The remaining 90% will be allowed to remain in place.
As the initial withdrawal is now completed, Hamas has 72 hours to complete the handover of all remaining hostages.
Further negotiations are then expected to lead to a further withdrawal, though the timeline for this is less clear.
He added: “We don’t want to damn it [ceasefire deal] with expectations to start with, let’s hope for the best, but most ceasefires are hardest to maintain in the first two or three weeks”.
