Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s new direction in the war on Gaza risks dragging Israel into a conflict with no clear endpoint.
The stated goal remains, at least outwardly, the total destruction of Hamas.
But attempting to eliminate an idea, particularly one tied to resistance and Palestinian national identity, is likely an impossible task.
The prime minister’s plan has now received approval from the security cabinet.
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Yet in many ways, this remains one man’s war.
Public opposition is growing. Protests have become a near-daily occurrence. Hostage families and their supporters continue to take to the streets, fearing the current strategy puts their loved ones in even greater danger.
The military also appears increasingly uneasy.
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The chief of staff of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, has raised strong objections.
He is warning of military fatigue, the risks of a prolonged occupation, and the danger of turning the Israeli army into a long-term policing force for millions of Palestinians.
Many within the military, like a significant portion of the Israeli public, would prefer a ceasefire that could lead to the release of more hostages.
Israel currently claims to control around 75 percent of the Gaza Strip.
Under the new plan, it will attempt to move into the remaining areas.
Under international law, Gaza is already considered under Israeli occupation.
According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 86.3% of the Strip falls within Israeli militarised zones.
The most intense operations for the new plan will likely focus on Gaza City, considered the de facto capital of the Strip and the administrative stronghold of Hamas.
Taking Gaza City is seen as a key step in weakening Hamas’s operational capabilities.
Its capture would also carry deep symbolic weight, potentially altering the political landscape of post-war Gaza.
Israel believes a large number of hostages are still being held in or near Gaza City.
This is one of the main reasons the IDF has previously avoided full incursions into those areas.
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The risk to those in captivity remains high.
Nevertheless, none of these plans will unfold quickly.
The campaign could take months to prepare and many more to execute.
In the meantime, Israel risks accusations of committing to an open-ended war with no clear exit strategy.
Implementing control over Gaza would require a long-term project.
Observers suggest it could mirror the military and administrative template used in the occupied West Bank (which has persisted for decades). Such an effort in Gaza would likely take years to set up.
The Prime Minister’s Office has laid out five conditions that must be met before Israel agrees to end the war.
These are: the full disarmament of Hamas, the return of all fifty remaining hostages (twenty of whom are believed to be alive), the complete demilitarisation of Gaza, Israeli security control over the territory, and the replacement of both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority with a new civilian government.
These demands, while politically significant, will likely deepen Israel’s international isolation as the already horrendous civilian death toll in Gaza continues to climb.
Critics argue that the operation is increasingly tied to Netanyahu’s own political survival.
Since the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, his popularity has collapsed.
Polls consistently show a deep loss of public trust, and many Israelis blame him for the intelligence and leadership failures that led to the worst terror attack in the country’s history.
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Mass protests, led especially by families of the hostages, have called for new elections and a change in leadership.
Netanyahu, however, may view the continuation of war as a means to delay accountability and avoid political defeat.
His coalition depends on the support of far-right ministers such as Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
Any sign of compromise or willingness to negotiate risks collapsing his fragile government.
It is also worth considering just how long this war has already dragged on.
After 22 months of devastating conflict, many in Israel believe that Hamas no longer poses a strategic threat.
Yet the war’s goals have become increasingly ambiguous, and its endpoint remains undefined.
Hamas has largely fully transitioned into a guerrilla force.
Israel now faces the same dilemma that has haunted major powers before it, fighting an asymmetric enemy deeply embedded in civilian areas.
As the United States discovered in Vietnam and the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, fighting such a war comes at a price that is hard to grasp until it is far too late.
