Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital—a firm renowned for its pioneering role in digital asset investments since 2013—has delivered a bold valuation call for Bitcoin. According to Morehead, the world’s leading cryptocurrency should be trading above $120,000, potentially even surpassing $126,000, if recent political and regulatory developments were fully reflected in market prices.
Is Bitcoin Mispriced?
Morehead’s argument comes at a time when Bitcoin’s price is only up by only 24% following the last US presidential election—a modest increase by his standards. In a post on X, Morehead points to significant political and regulatory developments that he argues should have driven Bitcoin’s price far higher than current levels.
He wrote: “If a few days before the US Presidential election – with bitcoin at $69,000 – a sorcerer showed you a crystal ball and in it you knew for a fact that the pro-crypto candidate wins the presidency, Red House and Senate, 54 anti-crypto Members of Congress losing their seats, several Presidential Executive Orders on crypto including: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, US Digital Asset Stockpile (with other cryptocurrencies), most major SEC actions against blockchain industry participants dropped and the President hosting a summit to get input from the industry …all this in ten weeks.”
Morehead then assesses the impact these developments should have had on Bitcoin’s valuation: “I’d bet you’d say bitcoin would be up way more than 24%. The way I think of it, the markets have barely moved relative to trend. The twelve-year compound annual growth rate of Pantera Bitcoin Fund is 83%. It’d be up almost as much just naturally. Seems to me that the crypto markets have yet to price in the very positive developments.”
By outlining these milestones—ranging from a pro-crypto presidential victory and a reshaped Congress to a series of supportive executive actions—Morehead suggests that the market’s current price fails to capture what he sees as a natural upward trend.
A 83% uptrend would position BTC above $126,000. This bullish forecast is especially striking given the backdrop of recent market volatility. Bitcoin had just suffered a drop exceeding 7% after US President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs—a reminder that even the most promising outlooks can be overshadowed by sudden geopolitical and economic shocks.
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, also speaking on X, reacted to the sudden downturn and cautioned traders about potentially choppy conditions in the weeks to come. His comments suggest that $76,500 serves as a crucial price floor. Should Bitcoin maintain that threshold through mid-April, Hayes believes the market’s ability to regain traction will look far more promising. “Mrkt no likey ‘Liberation Day’, if BTC can hold $76.5k btw now and US tax day Apr 15, then we are out of the woods. Don’t get chopped up!” he stated
Meanwhile, Charles Edwards—Founder and CEO of Capriole Investments—hints at the possibility of Federal Reserve intervention, drawing parallels to previous periods where expansionary monetary policy helped reignite risk-on appetite, often boosting Bitcoin in the process. “Consider this as tariffs come in higher than expected. The Phily Fed Business Outlook survey is showing expectations today comparable to 2000, 2008 and 2022. How long until the Powell printer starts humming?” he remarked on X.
At press time, BTC traded at $81,811.
