As Donald Trump kicks off his threatened trade war by slapping tariffs on both friends and foes alike, Number 10 is preparing for the moment he turns his attention to the UK.
The unpredictability of the returning president, emboldened by a second term, means the prime minister must plan for every possible scenario.
Under normal circumstances, the special relationship might be the basis for special treatment but the early signs suggest, maybe not.
It was never going to be an easy ride, with Sir Keir Starmer’s top team racking up years of insults against Trump when they were in opposition.
The bad feeling continued when Peter Mandelson was proposed as the UK’s new ambassador to the US – prompting speculation he might even be vetoed.
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Amid all of this, the much-anticipated call between the two leaders seemed slow to take place, although it was cordial when POTUS finally picked up the phone last Sunday, with a trip to Washington to come “soon”.
It is against this slightly tense backdrop that the future of transatlantic trade will be decided, with Westminster braced for the impact of the president’s next move.
So, it’s unsurprising that as he waits, Sir Keir will spend the next few days resetting a different trading relationship – with Europe.
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In this area, he is on slightly firmer ground, as the spectre of a global trade war makes European leaders want to huddle closer together to weather the storm.
And conversely, the Labour government’s track record works in their favour here, as they cash in their pro-EU credentials and wipe the slate clean after the bad-tempered Boris Johnson years.
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It is still, however, an ambitious and risky endeavour to begin the delicate process of removing some of the most obstructive post-Brexit bureaucracy.
For minimal economic benefits on both sides, the UK must convince the Europeans that they are not letting Britain “have its cake and eat it”.
At the same time, Brexiteers back at home will cry betrayal at any hint that the UK is sneaking back into the bloc via the back door.
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To make it even trickier, it must all be done with one eye on Washington, because while a united Europe may be necessary in the Trump era, the prime minister will not want to seem like he is picking sides so early on.
As with so many things in politics, it’s a delicate balancing act with the most serious of consequences, for a prime minister who is still to prove himself.
