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Matthew Gagnon of Yarmouth is the chief executive officer of the Maine Policy Institute, a free market policy think tank based in Portland. A Hampden native, he previously served as a senior strategist for the Republican Governors Association in Washington, D.C.
Every year since 2011, I have closed out the year by making bold predictions for the year that follows, and this year will be no different.
As usual, I got many of my predictions right last year. I predicted that the economy would avoid recession, the Republicans would recapture the U.S. Senate and that the Republican nominee would win the presidential election. If I am proud of any single prediction though, it was my belief that “contrary to expectations and all current polling, at least one (if not both) of the expected nominees — Joe Biden and Donald Trump — will not represent their party next fall.”
It is a time to consider what is in store for us in the next twelve months, and so once again I look deeply into my crystal ball to see the future, and bring to you the ten lock solid guarantees for 2025.
“DOGE” will be a mixed bag
The Department of Governmental Efficiency will find itself hamstrung by bureaucratic inertia and entrenched partisanship, coupled with the difficulty of cutting some of the biggest spending outlays due to powerful special interest lobbies. Dreams of eliminating agencies are likely doomed to failure, though it is likely that the federal workforce will change, possibly shrink, and the annual deficit will, in fact, decrease.
Clarence Thomas will retire, cementing the Supreme Court’s conservative majority
Justice Clarence Thomas will be 77 years old in 2025, and he will learn the lesson of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg hanging on too long, and choose this moment to step aside. Donald Trump, confident with a Republican Congress behind him, will choose an arch-conservative to take his place, maintaining the court’s alignment for decades.
There will be a different kind of tax debate
Congress will easily approve permanent extensions of the Trump-era tax cuts. There will, however, likely be additional changes made to the code, possibly further manipulating the corporate tax downward. The biggest “tax change,” though, will be on the tariff front. Unlike his first term, Trump will make good on his tariff threats to a much more significant degree.
Trump’s border agenda will prove more successful this time
With both chambers of Congress — and the American people — behind him, and having now fully converted the GOP into a party in his image, Trump will be far more aggressive on immigration. He will likely get his wall funded, and there will be stronger enforcement measures.
There will be a recession
After years of near-misses,a tightening monetary environment and simmering global uncertainty tip the economy into a mild recession. Consumer confidence wanes as job growth stalls, prompting cautious corporate hiring. This will complicate, but not stop, some of Trump’s plans at the start of his administration.
Cryptocurrencies will face major regulatory hurdles, though not in the United States
In the wake of continued investor losses from phantom garbage coins, global regulators will start to aggressively crack down on digital tokens, particularly in the European Union. In the United States, however, Trump’s administration will be generally pro-crypto, which will mean a significant economic divergence in the West over the issue.
The wars in Ukraine and Israel will draw to a conclusion
I predicted this last year (for Ukraine) but with a new administration in office skeptical of foreign intervention, Ukraine will have to find a way to end the fighting soon. Meanwhile, Israel’s security concerns persist, but at some point in 2025, they will be able to end major combat operations.
Maine will rethink joining the National Popular Vote Compact
Democrats in Maine were never entirely sold on the compact to begin with, and the realization that if it was in force, Trump would have won all four of Maine’s electoral votes in 2024 may be enough, when combined with the stronger Republican numbers in the House, to allow this “important nationwide debate to continue” as Gov. Janet Mills claimed she wanted.
Maine will see an incredibly contentious legislative session
With a razor-thin majority in the House, Augusta will become a battleground for fierce partisan showdowns over several issues, but none larger than the biennial budget. Republican lawmakers will aggressively push their agenda, but Democratic majorities will still rule the day.
The race for governor of Maine will begin ridiculously early
The last two times Maine has had an open race for governor, both parties had large primaries. This will happen again, as potential candidates will line up in droves to be Mills’ successor. Expect that at least ten candidates will have declared by the end of the year.
Take these predictions to the bank, and have a Happy New Year!
