While the title of this insight may seem overly bullish, it’s simply a fact based on the data. However, historical patterns don’t really line up with such a bullish scenario. Across each Bitcoin cycle, the price increase has been around 27% of the last period. Should Bitcoin continue this trend, we may still have cause for optimism, albeit not with satoshi/dollar parity quite yet.
The price increase for each halving cycle appears to diminish significantly over time.
- First Halving (to Second Halving): 10,300% increase
- Second Halving (to Third Halving): 2,800% increase
- Third Halving (to Fourth Halving): 738% increase
Each cycle shows a substantial reduction in the percentage increase. To forecast a trend, let’s analyze the approximate rate of decrease:
- From Halving 1 to Halving 2:
(2800 / 10300) ≈ 27.18%of the previous increase. - From Halving 2 to Halving 3:
(738 / 2800) ≈ 26.36%of the previous increase.
If we continue this diminishing rate, Halving 4 might see an increase of around 26-27% of the previous Halving’s percentage increase:
738 * 0.265 ≈ 195.57%
Estimate for Halving 4: We could estimate an increase of approximately 195% over the halving price. This follows the trend of diminishing returns per cycle.
Such a price increase would take Bitcoin to a peak of around $180,000 this cycle.
For fun, if Bitcoin were to break the diminishing returns pattern and increase by 50% or 100% of the last cycle’s increase, we would see prices of $304,000 and $520,000, respectively.
Should Bitcoin somehow find the vigor of the 2017 bull run, it would rise as high as $1.8 million per coin.
Remember, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Bitcoin is still in its infancy as an asset, and anything could happen next.
Except, in my view, going to zero.
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