Maine’s deadliest mass shooting that killed 18 people and wounded another 13 might have been averted if police didn’t miss an opportunity to trigger the state’s yellow flag law, according to experts from Maine and the United States.
However, even if the law had been triggered, its setup may not have prevented the mass shooting.
In the wake of the shooting that stretched from the Just-In-Time Recreation bowling alley and Schemengees Bar and Grille Oct. 25, carried out by Robert R. Card II, Maine law enforcement officials have said Card’s history of declining mental health would not have prohibited from owning, possessing or purchasing a firearm. But experts who have studied mass shootings as well as “yellow” and “red” flag laws disagree based on police reports released Monday.
“That looks like a missed opportunity,” said Michael Rocque, an associate professor of sociology at Bates College in Lewiston. “If he had weapons, and made a threat that was basically exactly what [was in the police report], then we would consider that credible. Without question, I would consider that as a credible threat.”
Similarly, David Trahan of the Sportsman’s Alliance of Maine, which negotiated a yellow flag law after opposing a more stringent red flag bill, agreed.
“Based on what I read firsthand and the facts that I read in the report it is my opinion that this should have triggered a yellow flag,” he said.
Card is accused of killing 18 people and wounding 13 others in a shooting that stretched from the Just-In-Time Recreation bowling alley to Schemengees Bar and Grille Oct. 25. The largest manhunt in state history ended after roughly two days of searching when Card’s body was found by law enforcement officers Oct. 27.
Card appeared to have died from a self-inflicted gunshot.
As more information comes to light about Card, why police didn’t utilize Maine’s yellow flag law has prominently come into focus. That includes his family’s concerns over his increasing paranoia, revelations that members of the Army Reserve that Card served with were concerned he would “snap and commit a mass shooting,” and evidence that Card explicitly told people he was planning to “shoot up” the Army Reserve facility in Saco.
Card was treated for two weeks at a mental health facility in New York after he was evaluated by an Army psychologist, according to documents provided by the Sagadahoc County Sheriff’s Office. It is currently unclear whether or not Card was forcibly committed to the facility in New York.
Maine Department of Public Safety Commissioner Mike Sauschuck told reporters Saturday that he had not seen evidence that Card was committed against his will that would have triggered Maine’s yellow flag law.
But in the reports released Monday, the Sagadahoc County Sheriff’s Office was warned in May about Card’s declining mental health and the steps he had taken to gather “10-15” guns. The office was then again warned when members of the U.S. Army Reserve requested the officer do a welfare check on Card after he threatened to “shoot up” the Saco reserve center.
Rocque, who reviewed the contents of the two reports with a Bangor Daily News reporter, described the situation as a “textbook” example of a qualifying case for Maine’s yellow flag law to be used.
“I think so, [the threats] coupled with the family’s concerns about his mental health, it sounds like a textbook case,” he said.
Rocque has studied mass shootings as well as averted ones, and through that work he found that a threat is credible when someone makes a threat against specific people or a location and they have access to firearms or other weapons, he said.
Card told members of the Army Reserve he would “shoot up” the Saco facility multiple times, according to a Sept. 2023 police report from the Sagadahoc County Sheriff’s Office. One reservist texted a superior to tell him he was concerned that Card would “snap and commit a mass shooting,” the report says.
But, just because Card’s threats and apparent struggles with his mental health could have triggered the state’s yellow flag law, doesn’t mean it would have worked, Rocque said.
Maine’s “yellow flag” law, enacted in 2020, created a process by which police can temporarily confiscate guns from someone deemed to be a threat to themselves or others. It involves police taking someone into protective custody, and then getting a medical professional and a judge to agree that the person poses a threat to either themselves or others.
Under Maine’s law, people cannot directly petition the courts in Maine to confiscate a relative’s firearms. Lack of agreement from a medical professional prevents police from taking action. If a judge grants the prohibitions, the person is banned from possessing and buying weapons for up to a year. A district attorney can request an extension for up to an additional year.
That process is complicated and hinges on a mental health diagnosis, Rocque said. A red flag law that removes that part may have given Card’s family the opportunity to request a judge take Card into protective custody and remove his firearms, he said.
Margaret Groban, an adjunct professor at the University of Maine School of Law, agrees.
“The [family] could have potentially gone through the yellow flag process,” said Groban, a former federal prosecutor and member of the Maine Gun Safety Coalition. “I think the yellow flag law is overly burdensome, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t have done it.”
Amy Barnhorst, a medical doctor, associate director of the California Firearm Violence Research Center, and the director of the BulletPoints Project, said Card’s mass shooting is a clear example of where a red flag could have been useful.
“It doesn’t matter if it’s because you’re aligned with an extremist group or you’re angry with your boss because they fired you or hearing voices telling you to do some horrible, unspeakable thing,” she said. “It just matters that you are in danger of doing it, and guns are in the mix.”
Even if Maine had a red flag law, Card may have still been able to purchase a gun through a private sale, which does not require background checks.
Barnhorst helped author California’s red flag law and despite being a psychiatrist doesn’t think laws like these should hinge on a mental health component. The point of red flag laws are to remove guns out of the equation first, then the rest can be sorted out, she said.
When looking at Maine’s law, Barnhorst said it is coupled closely with a mental health evaluation which means if police don’t get a mental health evaluation — which is probable given Maine’s shortage of mental health care providers — the police would have no grounds to take Card’s gun or prevent him from purchasing more.
“The problem with the yellow flag setup is it puts a lot of obstacles in between the threat or the concern and the outcome of removing the weapons.”
BDN writers Valerie Royzman and Marie Weidmayer and editor Michael Shepherd contributed to this report.