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Ethan: Do you like your crow rare or well done?
Phil: I clearly deserve it well done and leathery, with a side of hot tongue and cold shoulder with humble pie for desert. That was not what I expected on election night.
Ethan: Truth be told, me neither. I was putting on a brave face predicting half of what I got right. Not only was there no Red Wave in Maine (or America for that matter), basically every major Democrat won handily, with Janet Mills winning by double digits, Jared Golden almost taking it on the first ballot, and Cheliie Pingree winning by one of her largest margins ever.
Phil: Yup. And the Legislature, which I predicted would go red by a hair in the Senate and by a comfortable margin in the House, didn’t even drop to a lighter shade of blue. Troy Jackson won his seat and has the same 22-13 seat majority he had when we started.
Ethan: And on the federal level, while still a bit up in the air, Republicans should gain control of the U.S. House, but by margins closer to the 15 seats I predicted than the 30-plus you thought would occur.
Phil: I may retain some semblance of dignity in regard to the U.S. Senate, as that majority is likely to come down to Georgia (didn’t we do this already in 2020?). But even there I am not holding my breath.
Ethan: I will give you this, you predicted Portland almost exactly right. You nailed the six charter amendments that would pass, and the two that would fail. And you got it right that only one citizen initiative would pass, you just picked the wrong one (rent control passed, not the one written by Airbnb).
Phil: Who would have thought I could predict Portland better than you? But I guess that means I can share my humble pie with you?
Ethan: With a little ice cream, please. When you predicted this wave, you said it would be in response to people blaming President Joe Biden for inflation and deficits. I believe you said in one of our recent columns, that people are “eager to cast their vote to stop the Democratic agenda.” Does this make you rethink that statement?
Phil: I still think there is a lot of discontent out there and elections, especially in Maine, are won or lost on the personal individual level. But, if I have a criticism of my party it is that we didn’t offer much of an alternative. It proves again that good candidates determine the outcome, not coattails of up ballot candidates. I think voters feel things are uncertain, but they didn’t sense that the alternative was comforting.
Ethan: Yes, you do have to give people some hope that the change they feel they want is within what you are offering. Change is scary enough when you have a good idea of what it will bring. If you are unclear, sticking with what you have often feels safer. That said, I do think Democrats didn’t simply win because Republicans were ineffective. I just don’t think Maine people felt they were doing a bad job managing what is in front of Maine.
Phil: I disagree. I think voters everywhere wanted to be heard especially about abortion and inflation, yet it was the independents who decided that the challenger wasn’t the solution, so they voted for the incumbent.
Ethan: Fair point, but they also said the road we are on is acceptable. So put on your seat belt, Democrats are hopefully about to step on the accelerator.
Phil: Seat belt on, holding on for dear life.