A version of this article was originally published in The Daily Brief, our Maine politics newsletter. Sign up here for daily news and insight from politics editor Michael Shepherd.
Costs are still the top electoral issue, but Republicans have little time to pin it on Democrats.
Things looked grim for Democrats in the spring, when Republicans down to the local level were hammering away at President Joe Biden at the outset of a major spike in fuel costs. Since then, Democratic fortunes have improved from poor to middling nationally, with abortion rights moving into a secondary slot in polling on the issues that matter most to voters.
It is leading to a fascinating final month in which Republicans own the top issue but are behind in polls and prognostications in the biggest Maine races. Democratic Gov. Janet Mills has held polling leads on former Republican Gov. Paul LePage, while CNalysis, a forecasting site rating control of the Maine Legislature as a toss-up, made changes this week in Democrats’ direction. National experts are split on the reelection case for U.S. Rep. Jared Golden of the 2nd District.
The economy has polled as Maine’s top issue, with 39 percent in a recent Emerson College poll deeming it so. While more than two-thirds of voters who rank that issue highest are voting for LePage, Democrats owned the secondary issues of abortion and threats to democracy by higher margins. That survey gave Mills a double-digit lead. Many observers expect a tighter margin.
Therein lies the issue for Republicans. Another recent survey from the polling arm of the progressive Maine People’s Alliance found that 40 percent of Mainers blamed high costs on federal officials but only 2.6 percent blamed state officials. That may indicate costs are more potent in the 2nd District race between Golden and former U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin, a Republican.
LePage and Poliquin are addressing high costs in different ways, but their solutions would have a mix of different effects. The former governor said he would suspend taxes and fees put into effect since the pandemic began. As the Maine Monitor has reported, there are relatively few. He has criticized the $850 relief checks given out by Mills and the Legislature, saying it would have been better spent by going directly to fuel dealers to cap heating oil costs.
House Republicans’ post-election agenda opens the door to future reductions to Medicare and Social Security, something the party has long billed as a way to shore up the program. This was a key issue in the 2018 election between Golden and Poliquin, who has underscored he wants no changes for current enrollees. Poliquin has blamed Democrats for the costs issue, often in vague terms, as he looks to rally Republicans in a conservative district.
The party only has a limited time to stick these issues to Democrats. At the state level, they will be doing so at a steep cash disadvantage with Mills outraising LePage. Democrats lead the outside spending war in that race and are dominating it in legislative races. They also had a slight edge in 2nd District ads during a recent two-week period, according to the Wesleyan Media Project, but Poliquin is poised for more air support down the stretch.