A small gap in Republican and Democratic turnout in Maine’s June primaries could be one sign that a conservative wave election may not come this November.
The low-key primary election only drew 21 percent of Republicans despite a primary in Maine’s conservative-leaning 2nd Congressional District, only slightly ahead of Democrats’ 19 percent turnout with no major competitive state or regional elections on their ballot.
Those figures came before a midterm election that many had forecasted as potentially disastrous for Democrats nationwide facing low approval for President Joe Biden and a historical backlash against the party of an incumbent president.
They are now slightly favored to hold the U.S. Senate with low but improving odds of holding the House, FiveThirtyEight says.
Primary turnout has not always been a good predictor of November outcomes in Maine, since the number of competitive elections on either side varies every two years. But Republicans saw a 10-percentage-point edge on Democrats during the 2010 wave election that swept former Gov. Paul LePage into office. He is running against Democratic Gov. Janet Mills this year.
While turnout for the June primaries was low, Democrats may have just barely missed a turnout bump in June, with the election coming 10 days before the U.S. Supreme Court overturned federal abortion rights, though a draft of the final decision had leaked around 40 days earlier.
“The fact that 19 percent of eligible Democrats turned out for what were basically settled races, and a couple of weeks before the [abortion] case, could suggest there’s some real Democratic energy,” said Ronald Schmidt, a University of Southern Maine political scientist.
Maine Republicans have downplayed the role abortion will play in November, frequently saying that voters are prioritizing economic problems such as the price of gas and heating oil, policy areas they think have the potential to help them take back the Blaine House and State House.
Democrats have not always translated primary edges into general election gains. In 2020, they turned out 45 percent of their voters for the June 2020 primary in which then-House Speaker Sara Gideon clinched the nomination to face Sen. Susan Collins, who ran unopposed on the Republican ticket. But Collins won comfortably in a race that saw record spending.
Biden could influence the outcome in November. His approval rating nationally fell into the mid-30s in July, although it has ticked back up in the past month as Democrats pushed his signature tax, climate and health care spending bill through Congress.
“Whether Biden’s approval is 45 versus 47 percent probably doesn’t make a lot of difference,” said Ben Grant, the former chair of the Maine Democratic Party. “But by November, if it’s continuing to trend up or staying even in the polls, I think that’s probably good for our side.”
Democratic and Republican voters have also been tending to vote differently, with far more Democrats filling out absentee ballots in a trend that has been consistent over the past decade but has gained in importance since the COVID-19 pandemic began.
Former state Sen. Brian Langley, R-Ellsworth, who lost to Sen. Nicole Grohoski, D-Ellsworth, in a June special election for his old Hancock County seat, likely went into Election Day at a 1,000-vote disadvantage due to absentee votes. The party’s voters see the classic way of voting as a civic virtue, he said, which makes him more hopeful for higher turnout in November.
“They take great pride in going in and actually going to the voting booth on Election Day,” Langley said. “It’s extremely important for them to do it in person.”
That election was seen as a victory for the Democrats as they sought to keep control of the Legislature amid a difficult political environment. While the abortion ruling likely changed things, experts said barriers remain for the party.
Though Grant was optimistic about the chances for Mills and U.S. Rep. Jared Golden of the 2nd District, who is running against former Rep. Bruce Poliquin and independent Tiffany Bond, he said Democrats across ballots must contend with a hard political climate.
“People consume more and more national politics, so they vote more and more based on national issues,” Grant said. “It’s harder for a local candidate to overcome that fact.”