Ad spending alone in Maine’s 2022 gubernatorial race will triple the cost of the entire Blaine House campaign from four years ago, according to a new analysis.
Around $60 million is set to be spent on ads in the race between Gov. Janet Mills and former Gov. Paul LePage, according to predictions from AdImpact, a national ad tracking firm. That would be more than the $18 million spent by Maine’s 2018 candidates as well as outside groups that influenced the race that year.
This puts Maine on track for its most expensive midterm election ever at an estimated $127 million statewide. While it will likely fall short of the state’s record 2020 mark driven by a U.S. Senate campaign drawing $200 million, it is part of a national trend putting the 2022 midterms on track to be more expensive than the presidential cycle of two years ago.
By this standard, spending on the gubernatorial race has barely begun. Mills’ campaign raised twice as much as LePage by mid-July. The Democratic incumbent has spent $1.1 million to date compared with $645,000 for her Republican predecessor, according to state filings. Independent longshot Sam Hunkler is also running, but the Beals physician is spending little.
The projections suggest a wave spending over the next three months. Nationwide, $9.7 billion is projected to be spent on campaigns, $2.4 billion on gubernatorial races, another $2.4 billion on U.S. Senate races, $1.9 billion on congressional races and $3 billion on other races down the ballot, including state legislatures.
Most of the rest of the Maine spending should come in the 2nd Congressional District, where the race between Democratic Rep. Jared Golden and former Rep. Bruce Poliquin, a Republican, is seen as a toss-up. Independent Tiffany Bond is also on the ballot in a ranked-choice voting race expected to be among the most competitive in the nation.
Maine’s total spending is less than many Northeast neighbors, including New Hampshire, where a competitive U.S. Senate race and an intertwined TV market is seeing ads leak across the Maine border.
The projected $60 million ad war in a Blaine House race is tied with the same projection for Florida, a state with 16 times more residents. It is also expected to be pricier than another featuring two high-profile candidates in Texas, where Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and former Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke are poised to drive $56 million in spending.
Outside groups spent nearly $11 million on the governor’s race during the general election period in 2018, while the candidates on the November ballot then spent $7.1 million on their entire campaigns, including the primaries for Mills and Republican nominee Shawn Moody.
That was the most expensive gubernatorial race in Maine history. The 2018 race that featured Golden, Poliquin, Bond and another independent candidate had been the most expensive campaign ever here at $21.7 million before the 2020 race between Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, Democratic challenger Sara Gideon and two independents.