On NATO’s doorstep, Russia is rehearsing for war.
It has deployed tanks, battleships and supersonic bombers for military drills with Belarus that are happening on land, at sea and in the air.
‘Zapad-2025′ are the allies’ first joint exercises since the invasion of Ukraine, and on Sunday involved the launch of a hypersonic missile in the Barents Sea.
“There are several strategic goals here that [Russia and Belarus] want to achieve,” Hanna Liubakova, an independent Belarusian journalist, told Sky News.
“Scare, show that they are capable, show that they can threaten… and of course, they’re also checking what the reaction and response could be.”
The reaction so far has been frosty, to say the least.
Ahead of the drills, Poland closed its border with Belarus and deployed more than 30,000 troops as part of its own military exercises.
Lithuania is also holding drills and said it would bolster defences along its frontiers with Russia and Belarus.
The authorities in Minsk, and in Moscow, insist the drills are defensive and not aimed at any other country.
On Friday, the Kremlin even described Europe’s concerns as “emotional overload”.
But the last time these drills happened four years ago, it led to a massive build-up of Russian troops in Belarus, which Moscow then used for part of its invasion of Ukraine a few months later.
And the drills aren’t the only thing Europe is worried about.
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The show of strength comes at a time of heightened tension after recent Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace – first in Poland and then Romania.
There’s a feeling in the West that the drones and drills are a test of NATO’s defences and Western resolve.
But you’re unlikely to find that opinion on the streets of the Belarusian capital, Minsk.
“There is no aggression,” Mikhail told Sky News. “Exercises are normal, especially planned ones. So I think it’s fine.”
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According to Kristina, Russia and Belarus are “not the aggressors”.
“I think our head of state [Alexander Lukashenko] will solve this issue and we will support him. He’s not aggravating the situation.”
A provocation or not, the drills offer NATO a fresh chance to scrutinise Russia’s military, after three-and-a-half years of costly combat in Ukraine.
It would feel a lot more comfortable, though, if they weren’t happening so close to home.
