The public is being asked to prepare for the risk of flooding with above-average rain and wind likely this autumn.
The Met Office is picking up higher chances of a strong jet stream and westerly winds in the long-range forecast, raising the risk of a wet, windy, and potentially stormy season.
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Although the heavy rain and wind aren’t guaranteed, if they do hit, western and northern parts of the UK are expected to bear the brunt.
Meanwhile eastern and southern areas may experience drier conditions than the national average.
And the unsettled weather is unlikely to eliminate the current drought afflicting five areas of England any time soon, said Will Lang, chief meteorologist at the Met Office.
“The current forecast for unsettled weather is unlikely to be enough to reverse the effects of drought over the next few weeks and during the autumn, especially so in England. We’re going to need more rain than that.”
He said it’s too early to tell whether that will change later in autumn and into winter.
But it means some areas could feasibly experience both drought and flooding at the same time, something symptomatic of a changing climate.
It comes as the sunny season came to an abrupt end last week, with the UK’s hottest summer on record giving way to heavy rain in some areas.
Last September brought heavy downpours and major disruption to the Midlands, before Storm Bert forced a major incident in Wales in November.
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Public urged to sign up to flood warnings
The Floods Resilience Taskforce – including floods minister Emma Hardy, the emergency services, and the Environment Agency – will meet later to discuss how to prepare for the season ahead.
Set up last year to tackle increasingly extreme weather, it is today urging the public to sign up to flood warnings in their area, avoid driving through flood water and prepare homes in order to speed up recovery.
About 6.3m properties in England are at risk of flooding, whether from the sea, rivers or flash flooding, according to Environment Agency data.
The government has committed a “record” two-year investment of £2.65bn to protect an extra 52,000 properties. It said it is on track to protect 25,000 homes this financial year, with 3,800 so far signed off.
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Officials confirmed 92.7% of the country’s critical flood defences are at their required condition, with little change on the 92.6% last September, and still below the optimum level of 98%.
Ms Hardy said the government is “investing billions to build new flood defences, which will protect homes and businesses across the country”.
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Warmer than average autumn expected
The new storm name season was launched last week, which officials say helps make people more aware of weather risks.
This autumn is also likely to be warmer than average, “a reflection mainly of our warming climate and how much things have changed in even just in the last 30 years,” said Mr Lang.
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Warmer air also holds more moisture, making downpours heavier.
In April, the country’s climate advisers warned the country was on course for “disaster” without better protection against flooding and intense heat.
