Vladimir Putin doesn’t do four-day getaways to a single country very often.
His last was 20 years ago, to attend the 60th anniversary session of the UN General Assembly in New York in 2005.
The fact that his current visit to China is that long says a lot. So does the timing – barely two weeks after the Russian president met Donald Trump in Alaska.
Follow the latest: Putin arrives in China to meet ‘axis of upheaval’
It feels like a very deliberate illustration of how close Moscow is to Beijing in the face of US attempts to weaken the relationship and its drive to end the war in Ukraine.
With China, the American president has tried the stick. Threats of tariffs and secondary sanctions over its continued purchasing of Russian oil.
And with Russia, apparently, the carrot too.
As well as renewed warnings of “massive” sanctions on Moscow, the Reuters news agency last week reported that US and Russian officials also discussed energy deals during recent negotiations, in the hope of incentivising the Kremlin to agree a peace deal, and to start diluting its bond with Beijing.
But Putin‘s programme in China appears designed to emphasise that his relationship with Xi Jinping is stronger than ever.
After the two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organisation security summit, the pair will hold face-to-face talks on Tuesday, before Putin takes his place as guest of honour at a military parade on Wednesday that marks the 80th anniversary of Japan’s formal surrender in the Second World War.
The symbolism is clear – Russia and China fought shoulder-to-shoulder against the enemies of the past, and they’ll remain united against the threats of the future.
There’ll be other powerful photo-ops too, namely with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is among a string of leaders Vladimir Putin will hold bilateral talks with.
A handshake and a smile on the summit sidelines just days after Trump hit India with 50% tariffs for buying Russian oil will be the diplomatic equivalent of blowing a raspberry in Washington’s direction.
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For Russia, the whole visit feels like a pointed show of solidarity amid sanctions – that Moscow and its allies are immune to Western pressure.
But amid the symbolism, the Kremlin will be looking for substance here too.
Bilateral trade with China, which has helped keep the Russian economy afloat since the invasion of Ukraine, has started to fall in recent months.
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After hitting a record high of $245bn in 2024, trade volumes have dipped by 8% since January. And that’s particularly worrying for Moscow, with signs the economy could be on the brink of recession.
Putin will be hoping to arrest that slump and expand trade into new areas.
Most of all, though, I think he’ll be seeking a commitment from Russia’s economic partners that they won’t be going anywhere should the pressure increase.
