It’s the start of a very big week for China, and there is a clear sense they know the world is watching.
Amidst a fractious time for the world order, as wars rage and previously trusted international norms are cast into doubt, China is playing a calculated diplomatic game, and this week is about showing off what it can do.
Indeed, at a time when Donald Trump’s America feels increasingly unilateral, with traditional allies overlooked or alienated with tariffs, China is showcasing its ability to convene, its ability to lead and its thinly veiled desire to forge a new world order around distinctly anti-American themes.
You may well not have heard of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit or the SCO, but it’s the first in a series of major events in China this week, convening leaders from some of the world’s most significant and some would say ‘disruptive’ nations.
On the face of it it’s a security forum, founded initially with just a handful of China’s immediate neighbours to discuss border disputes. But it has ballooned into a network of some 26 countries from Asia, Europe and Africa covering a remarkable 43% of the world’s population and 23% of its GDP.
Some have termed it the “axis of upheaval” and that feels about right when you look at the guest list; leaders from Russia, Iran, India, Pakistan, Myanmar, Belarus and Turkey will all be here.
And while they are not bound by any sort of mutual defence treaty and there will unlikely be any major pacts or agreements, the optics will no doubt be striking and absolutely designed to rattle those looking on from the West.
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Of course, a key focus will be the war in Ukraine and Trump’s faltering attempts to forge peace.
Vladimir Putin will be a guest of honour here and there could hardly be a better forum for him to shore up his support amongst the nations that have kept his country afloat.
China has consistently cast itself as neutral on Ukraine but it’s been an economic lifeline for Putin’s war effort, providing it with components, a ready market for its oil and gas and significant diplomatic cover.
While China does have some interest in the war coming to an end – it loathes unpredictability and is already lining up to secure contracts to rebuild Ukraine. But it also won’t want to see any outcome that leaves Putin looking weak or Trump looking successful.
Indeed, in China’s view the war is a good distraction for America. While Trump is caught up with Putin, he has less bandwidth to direct his ire towards them.
The presence of India’s Narendra Modi is also a remarkable coup for Xi Jinping. Be in no doubt, there is no love lost between the world’s two most populous nations. They share a bitter border dispute that turned violent in 2020 and an intense regional rivalry. Also Modi has not been to China for seven years.
But this summit comes at a time when the US-India relationship has soured dramatically. For years, the US has worked hard to court India as a vital partner in the region, but now Trump has slapped a total of 50% tariffs on Indian goods, while Modi was reportedly furious at the way he took credit for ‘resolving’ a flare-up of tensions with Pakistan earlier this summer.
China is more than happy to welcome those Trump pushes away.
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A week of frenzied diplomacy here will climax on Wednesday with an enormous military parade through Beijing’s Tiananmen Square to mark 80 years since the surrender of Japan in World War Two.
This time Xi will be joined not just by Putin, but by Kim Jong Un of North Korea too, the first time the leader of the hermit kingdom has attended a multilateral event of this size.
They will watch tens of thousands of soldiers marching alongside “fourth generation” weaponry, some which will be unveiled to the public for the first time.
It will be a fitting way to end a week of stark symbolism.
Because ultimately, this week is about China burnishing its power.
Its firepower yes, but its political power too.
The power of its allegiances, the power of its economy, and the power for it to provide alternatives at a time when America is increasingly unpredictable.
The only question is to what extent the rest of the world is buying in – from here it feels like many are.
