The UK government won’t find much in the latest dump of migration data to back up its claim that it is restoring order to a broken asylum system.
In a competitive field, perhaps the most damaging stat is the rising number of small boat crossings – up 38% on 12 months previously and close to the peaks of 2023.
That has helped push up asylum applications to record levels, which in turn has led to a rise in the use of hotel accommodation.
Politics live: Read about the latest migration stats
Deportations are up, but more than half of the total figure is foreign national offenders rather than failed asylum seekers.
The backlog for initial decisions is coming down.
But the approval rate for those applying for asylum after arriving on a small boat is still hovering around the 65% mark.
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Another bottleneck is also forming as more people appeal their initial rejections – and require accommodation while they wait for an outcome.
This all helps explain why people are still taking the risk of crossing the channel in the first place.
It’s still highly likely that if you get to the UK, you’ll be able to stay.
The row over the use of hotels is a product of this underlying problem.
And if you thought that argument was vicious, just wait for the one that could follow if asylum seekers start to be moved out of hotels and into houses and flats in areas that already have a shortage of homes.
It’s why the only real endgame for the government is to find a way to stop people coming in the first place.
Increased numbers of returns, including through the UK-France deal, could provide some deterrent.
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Beefed-up action to dismantle smuggling gangs and reforms to the time it takes for appeals to be heard will help too.
So far though, all the figures that count are going in the wrong direction.
What’s more, there’s some evidence that the data is looking particularly painful for Labour in some of its most vulnerable areas.
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A look down the list of councils with relatively high numbers of asylum seekers reveals several key election battlegrounds in the Midlands and North.
These are regions where Reform is already campaigning hard.
The stakes are high, and as it stands the government is being found wanting.
