Legislators in Texas have approved new congressional maps designed to boost Donald Trump’s Republicans at next year’s midterm elections.
Known as redistricting, the state’s re-drawn map would shift conservative voters into districts currently held by Democrats, and combine other districts with a Democratic majority into one.
The process is not new, and is completely legal – unless it is ruled to be racially motivated – but typically occurs every 10 years after the US Census to account for population changes.
The push to redistrict early came from Mr Trump himself, who wants to bolster his chances of preserving the slim Republican majority in the House of Representatives at next year’s crucial midterms.
But by trying to re-draw the maps in the red state of Texas, Democrats have lined up their own counter redistricting effort in the blue state of California.
If more states decide to re-consider their maps, it has the potential to largely determine the outcome of the 2026 midterms, before a single vote is cast.
What’s happening in Texas?
Mr Trump first said he wanted politicians in Texas to redraw the state’s congressional district in July. The governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, followed up on the president’s demands, calling for a special session to vote on new maps.
“Please pass this map ASAP,” Mr Trump urged on his Truth Social platform on Monday. “Thank you, Texas!”
In an effort to try to make passing the vote as difficult as possible, Democrats fled the state for two weeks. Per parliamentary rules, if enough Democrats refuse to take part in the special session, the Texas House can’t meet.
On their return, each Democratic politician was assigned a police escort to ensure they attended the session.
Nicole Collier, who refused the police escort, stayed in the House for two nights, and was pictured with an eye mask and blanket trying to sleep at her desk.
Once the debate started, the doors to the chamber were locked and all members wanting to leave had to get a permission slip to do so.
After nearly eight hours, the legislation to formally change the map was passed 88-52 on Wednesday.
It now needs to be approved by the Texas Senate, where Republicans hold a majority, and then signed off by Mr Abbott, who has already committed to doing just that.
Why re-draw maps?
Republicans in Texas have openly said the rally to re-draw congressional maps is in the party’s interest.
Todd Hunter, the Republican who wrote the legislation formally creating the new map, told the House: “The underlying goal of this plan is straight forward: improve Republican political performance.”
He said the dispute is nothing more than a partisan fight, and made reference to the US Supreme Court having previously allowed politicians to redraw districts for partisan purposes.
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Democrats hit back, arguing the disagreement was about more than partisanship.
“In a democracy, people choose their representatives,” representative Chris Turner said. “This bill flips that on its head and lets politicians in Washington, DC, choose their voters.”
Another Democrat, John H Bucy, blamed the president, saying: “This is Donald Trump’s map.
“It clearly and deliberately manufactures five more Republican seats in Congress because Trump himself knows that the voters are rejecting his agenda.”
How have Democrats responded?
The move by Republicans has triggered a tit-for-tat move by the Democrats, who are due to meet in California on Thursday to revise the state’s maps in order to gain five more seats.
To enact the same powers in California will prove harder, as state laws require an independent commission to take responsibility for redistricting – meaning it would need to be approved by voters in a special election.
In other blue states, rules are even tighter. For example, in New York, they cannot draw new maps until 2028, and even then, only with voter approval.
Despite the obstacles, California governor Gavin Newsom confirmed a redistricting election will take place in the state on 4 November, in order to “fight fire with fire”.
His plan has gained support from former president Barack Obama, who said it was necessary to “stave off” the Republicans’ move in Texas.
Could this affect the midterms?
The midterms in November next year will likely be on a knife edge.
Whatever the outcome, it could shape the remainder of Mr Trump’s second term in office. A Democrat majority would make it tougher for him to pass laws.
Currently, Republicans control the House of Representatives in Washington, 219-212 (excluding four open vacancies). A party needs 218 seats for a majority.
In the Senate, the Republicans hold a similarly slim majority of 53 to 45.
However, the incumbent president’s party typically loses seats in the midterms.
In the 2018 midterms, during Mr Trump’s first tenure as president, the Democrats took control of the House. Likewise, in 2022, when Joe Biden was president, the House swung back to the Republicans.
It’s important to note that 27 House seats will remain in states that are unlikely to redraw their maps, according to The New York Times.
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In a bid to avoid a repeat of history, Mr Trump is pushing for redistricting in states beyond Texas. Top Republicans in states like Indiana, Missouri, and Florida continue to talk about tweaking their maps to create more Republican-controlled congressional seats.
While Ohio has to legally redraw, the timing of which could benefit the Republicans, and, by extension, Mr Trump.
