Bitcoin is trading at a critical support level after reaching a new all-time high of $124,500 before swiftly losing the $115K level in less than a week. The sudden reversal underscores the sharp rise in volatility, with bulls and bears locked in a battle for momentum. While some analysts argue that BTC could reclaim its highs in the coming days, others expect the market to cool off further, with consolidation potentially dragging the price into lower ranges.
Key insights from CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn reveal that Bitcoin just faced one of the heaviest loss-driven moves in weeks. Short-term holders (STHs) have been under pressure, with billions in BTC flowing into exchanges at a loss, signaling capitulation among speculative investors. Historically, such moments of intense selling either trigger deeper corrections or set the stage for recovery rallies, depending on how quickly markets absorb the supply.
For now, Bitcoin’s ability to stabilize above the $115K–$113K support zone will likely determine the short-term trajectory. If buyers step in aggressively, a rebound toward $120K+ could materialize. However, failure to defend current levels may leave BTC vulnerable to a deeper retracement before any attempt to retest its all-time highs.
Short-Term Holders Capitulate as Bitcoin Faces Pressure
According to CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn, Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs) are showing signs of serious capitulation. Over just two days, a staggering 50,026 BTC — worth approximately $5.69 billion — flowed from STHs to exchanges at a loss. This marks the deepest loss-driven move in more than a month, underscoring how quickly sentiment can shift in an overheated market.
STHs selling at a loss is a critical signal. Historically, these moments often align with market stress points where speculative investors exit positions under pressure. Bulls, however, are looking for a different outcome. They want this to represent a sharp flush-out of weak hands, followed by renewed accumulation and a swift price rebound. In this view, the sell-off would simply be a reset — a profit-taking event that clears the path for more sustainable gains.
If that fails to materialize, the risk grows that this episode could mirror the prolonged loss realization seen from late February through late May, when persistent capitulation dragged Bitcoin through an extended consolidation phase.
For now, bulls are defending the $115K region, but many analysts point to $110K as a decisive level. Losing that support could expose BTC to a deeper retracement, while holding it could provide the springboard for a renewed push back toward all-time highs.
BTC Price Analysis: Testing Key Moving Average
The 8-hour Bitcoin chart shows that BTC is under strong selling pressure after failing to hold above the $120K–$123K resistance area. The chart highlights multiple rejections at the $123,217 level, establishing it as a critical ceiling. After the most recent failed breakout attempt, price has sharply retraced, now trading around $113,486.
On the downside, BTC is testing the 200-period moving average (red line), currently sitting near $113,292. This zone has acted as a key support level in previous consolidations. If the price manages to defend this area, it could form a base for a potential rebound toward the mid-range levels around $117K–$118K. However, failure to hold this moving average would likely open the door for a deeper correction toward the $110K psychological level.
The 50-period (blue) and 100-period (green) moving averages are now above the price, acting as resistance, signaling a short-term bearish bias. Market structure suggests consolidation is underway, with momentum shifting toward bears.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
