Polymarket traders are pricing low probabilities on several notable phrases being spoken during President Donald Trump’s joint news conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage today, even as volumes on the event’s prediction markets reach six figures.
The markets, which resolve on whether Trump uses specific words or phrases during the appearance, have drawn a combined volume of nearly $200,000 across multiple terms.
Per Polymarket data, the contract on whether Trump will say “Russia” or “Ukraine” at least 15 times carries a 79% implied probability, with about $15,300 traded. “Ceasefire” three or more times is at 72% on $11,334 volume. Other terms with higher probabilities include “Zelensky” at 88% ($37,780) and “BRICS” or “NATO” two or more times at 68% ($11,487). Markets for “secondary tariff” or “sanction” carry a 69% chance, while “Steve” or “Witkoff” is priced at 65%.
In contrast, some phrases are priced with sharply lower odds. “Crypto” or “Bitcoin” has attracted over $51,700 in volume yet holds just a 3% chance of being spoken. “Hell” three or more times is at 28%, “President Xi” sits at 27%, and several terms such as “Kyiv,” “Crimea,” “Biden,” and “Rare Earth” are clustered near the 40–50% range.
All markets resolve based on the official video or audio of the August 15 event, with any usage, including plural or possessive forms, counting toward settlement.
A separate Polymarket contract speculates on the length of the leaders’ handshake, drawing over $180,000 in total volume. The most traded outcome is a duration of 10 seconds or longer, at 24% with $56,092 volume, followed by 4–6 seconds at 27% and 2–4 seconds at 20%. The least probable outcome is under two seconds at just 4%.
The Alaska summit marks the first in-person Trump–Putin meeting since 2019 and the first U.S.-hosted bilateral meeting with a Russian leader since 2007.
As the Washington Post reported, the talks come without Ukrainian participation, a decision that has drawn objections from Kyiv and European allies. Per the Guardian, the Kremlin is expected to bring economic proposals alongside territorial demands related to the war in Ukraine.
Polymarket, which allows users to trade on crypto event outcomes, has become a closely watched barometer for sentiment around political and geopolitical events. The platform previously hosted a market on whether the summit would take place at all, which saw nearly $3 million in total wagers before resolving “Yes” with the meeting’s confirmation. Market prices shift dynamically as traders buy and sell shares in “Yes” or “No” outcomes, reflecting the crowd’s real-time assessment of probabilities.
The event’s timing has drawn interest from traders monitoring potential impacts on energy and macro markets. As MarketWatch noted, oil futures could react to any perceived breakthrough or breakdown in talks, with possible price swings of several dollars per barrel.
Bitcoin and Ethereum, which move in response to macro and geopolitical developments, may also be influenced by post-summit sentiment, though the dedicated “Crypto/Bitcoin” term market implies traders do not expect the asset class to feature in Trump’s public remarks.
Trump is scheduled to hold the joint news conference following his one-on-one meeting with Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson. The markets on Polymarket will close once the event concludes and recorded evidence confirms the results, with any absence of a public appearance by August 16 triggering a “No” resolution across all contracts.
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