Bettors on the Polygon-based prediction market Polymarket are assigning a 96.3% probability that the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged at its July 29–30 meeting, according to the platform’s contract covering the decision.
On top of the percentage of bets on “no change,” the platform’s dashboard shows 3% betting on a 25‑basis‑point cut, and less than 1% betting on either a larger cut or a hike.
The backdrop
The bets come amid an unusually public dispute between President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has argued that the Fed should have started cutting rates. During a July 24 visit to the Fed’s renovation site, he reiterated his stance and advocated for sharp reductions.
Meanwhile, Powell has continued to say that policy will remain data-dependent, with officials monitoring how tariffs and other factors impact inflation before considering easing.
During the same visit, Trump stated that the renovation would cost $3.1 billion, a figure Powell subsequently corrected, noting that the amount included costs from a different building that had been refurbished years earlier.
The exchange highlighted the broader tension over the Fed’s independence and followed Trump’s earlier suggestions, later tempered, that he could remove Powell before the end of his term.
Low odds of Powell resigning
Contracts tied to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s tenure also imply limited odds of immediate upheaval.
The Polymarket odds on whether Powell will be out as chair by July 31 are trading around 1%, the August 31 version is near 5%, and a longer‑dated market puts the probability of his departure by year-end 2025 at about 17%.
Together, the Polymarket contracts suggest that participants expect no policy change next week and do not anticipate an imminent shake-up in Fed leadership, even as the medium-term probability of Powell’s exit has edged higher through year-end.
For now, prediction markets align with most public Fed guidance, which is to hold steady, assess the data, and avoid pre‑committing to cuts.
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