Ethereum’s derivatives market has erupted in the past seven days, and the trading desk at Singapore-based QCP Capital argues it is the clearest evidence yet that a long-anticipated altcoin season is finally under way. In a note to clients on Monday, the firm says total perpetual open interest (OI) in ether futures has vaulted from “under $18 billion to more than $28 billion in just a week,” a jump large enough to drag the composite “altcoin-season index” above the critical 50-point threshold for the first time since December.
Altcoin Season Ignites As Ethereum Outpaces BTC
While it’s no surprise that retail may be chasing the momentum, it’s becoming increasingly clear that institutions are leading the charge this cycle, driven by a shift in narratives and structural developments,” QCP writes, pointing to the unusually large sizing of recent block trades on CME and Binance.
QCP singles out last Friday’s signing of the GENIUS Act as the pivotal spark behind the rotation. The law creates a comprehensive federal regime for dollar-backed stablecoins, forcing issuers to hold 100 percent short-term Treasury or cash reserves and submit to Bank Secrecy Act oversight. The White House cast the statute as “historic legislation that will pave the way for the United States to lead the global digital-currency revolution.”
With regulatory clarity finally in hand, corporate treasuries “are racing to build their stockpile,” QCP says, treating ether and other smart-contract platforms—Solana, XRP Ledger and Cardano among them—as the infrastructure layer that will benefit most from an explosion in stablecoin issuance. The desk compares the emerging strategy to the hard-money playbook adopted by publicly listed bitcoin bellwethers such as MicroStrategy and Japan’s Metaplanet.
The note argues that the policy tailwind is already reshaping capital flows. Spot ether ETFs attracted $602 million on July 17, out-pulling bitcoin ETFs’ $522 million and marking the first daily flow victory for ETH in the eighteen-month history of US crypto ETPs. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust recorded the single largest subscription and, according to QCP, is “broadcasting confidence” that its pending amendment to allow on-chain staking will secure SEC approval later this year. Industry analysts concur: the agency is widely expected to rule on the batch of staking amendments before year-end despite BlackRock’s late filing.
Derivatives positioning mirrors the spot-market exuberance. QCP highlights “aggressive” demand for out-of-the-money call spreads such as the ETH-26 Sep 25 $3,400/3,800 and ETH-26 Dec 25 $3,500/4,500 structures, along with a persistent bid for call-side risk reversals across all listed tenors. Implied volatility skews now favour calls by their widest margin since the April 2024 meme-coin frenzy, signalling traders’ willingness to pay up for upside exposure through the fourth quarter—precisely the window in which ETF staking approval could drop.
The Ether surge has already carved four percentage points out of bitcoin’s market-share lead, driving BTC dominance down to 60 percent while lifting ETH’s share from 9.7 percent to 11.6 percent, QCP notes. If that trend holds—and the firm stresses that sustained follow-through in the options market is a key litmus test—“the next leg of altcoin season may already be in motion.”
For now, QCP is monitoring three metrics: perpetual OI growth, the altcoin-season index, and relative ETF flows. A decisive break of bitcoin above $121,000 could delay rotation, the desk concedes, but the structural forces unleashed by the GENIUS Act and the prospect of yield-bearing ether ETFs give institutions a tangible reason to diversify. As QCP puts it, “we’ll be watching these signals closely—and if anything else confirms the thesis, you’ll be the first to know.”
At press time, ETH traded at $3,846.
