Senate Republicans are bracing for another one of their colleagues to possibly call it quits: Joni Ernst.
The two-term Iowa senator hasn’t officially announced her plans for 2026, and she’s gone through some of the motions of launching another campaign, including recently hiring someone to manage it and announcing her annual fall fundraiser.
But three people granted anonymity to disclose private discussions said there is rising concern among fellow Senate Republicans that Ernst will retire rather than run for reelection, giving Republicans another seat to defend next fall.
Many will be watching closely for clues next week when Ernst files new campaign fundraising totals. She raised just over $1 million in the first quarter of 2025, a solid but not overwhelming number for an in-cycle senator.
Asked about the senator’s 2026 plans, Ernst spokesperson Palmer Brigham declined to say definitively that she would run again: “Senator Ernst is focused on her work delivering for Iowans in the Senate to make Washington ‘squeal,’ making President Trump’s historic tax cuts permanent through the One Big Beautiful Bill, and advancing a strong NDAA.”
Ernst has told people as recently as the past month that she is still considering whether she wants to run again, according to a fourth person granted anonymity to discuss the matter.
Iowa isn’t in the top tier of potential pickup opportunities for Democrats — their best bets are the seat being vacated by Thom Tillis in North Carolina and unseating Susan Collins in Maine. But Democrats view it as in play, especially if Trump and his party are facing steep headwinds by next November.
Asked about Ernst, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said in a brief interview Thursday, “I’m doing everything I can to encourage her to run for reelection.”
“Ultimately that’s a decision she’d have to make,” Thune added. “I think she’s moving forward.”
Multiple Democrats are already in the race, including — Iowa state Sen. Zach Wahls and state Rep. J.D. Scholten. If Ernst were to decide not to run, Republicans believe they already have at least one compelling candidate waiting in the wings. Two of the people granted anonymity said Rep. Ashley Hinson is highly likely to enter the race if Ernst bows out.
Hinson, a former TV news anchor, is the most formidable fundraiser in the Iowa House delegation. The $2.2 million she reported in her campaign coffers earlier this year was only about $800,000 behind what Ernst had available to spend. Hinson and multiple aides did not respond to requests for comment.
Raised on a farm before becoming an Army Reserve officer, Ernst was first re-elected in 2014 on a pledge to “make ’em squeal” in Washington by reining in government spending. She has long been viewed as a rising star within the party, and she beat Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer in 2018 to join the GOP leadership team.
Ernst said last year that she intended to run for reelection, but she’s had recent setbacks. She lost her bid to be the No. 3 GOP leader late last year to Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton. And her early concerns about Trump’s pick for Defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, put Ernst under fierce scrutiny from MAGA allies — some of whom accused her of trying to angle to claim the top Pentagon job herself.
Ernst, a sexual assault survivor and combat veteran, quickly said after a committee hearing on Hegseth’s nomination that she would support him.
As she came under pressure from Trump allies, Ernst aligned herself closely with Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency initiative earlier this year, including leading the Senate’s DOGE caucus. But Musk’s cost-cutting mission has since fizzled amid a messy breakup between the billionaire and the president.
Even enshrining a small amount of Musk’s identified savings is facing steep headwinds in the Senate, where many Republicans want to slim down a $9.4 billion package of clawbacks.
Also recently, Ernst generated unflattering headlines when she responded to town hall attendees angry about Medicaid cuts by saying, “Well, we all are going to die.”
Ernst would be the fourth Senate Republican to retire ahead of 2026, joining Tillis and Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky as well as Tommy Tuberville of Alabama, who is running for governor.
