Bitcoin (BTC) recorded slight losses following the release of the US June employment report, which showed unemployment falling to 4.1%, compared to the consensus forecast of 4.3%. The drop in the unemployment rate is likely to prompt the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates unchanged, a scenario that could weigh on risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Strong Employment Data May Hurt Bitcoin
The lower-than-expected unemployment rate complicates the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. This comes amid ongoing pressure from US President Donald Trump to implement rate cuts quickly.
The robust labor market data, released today, highlights continued strength in the US economy, reducing the likelihood of an imminent rate cut. Notably, nonfarm payrolls (NFP) rose by 147,000 in June, significantly surpassing analysts’ expectations of 118,000 new jobs.
With the unemployment rate falling to its lowest level since February 2025 and NFP growth exceeding forecasts, the Fed is likely to maintain elevated interest rates for longer to ensure inflation continues to trend downward.
Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool now shows a 95.3% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at its July 30 meeting. This is substantially up from 75% before the jobs report.
In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, contributor Amr Taha noted that a strong job market could hurt Bitcoin in the near term. He explained:
A resilient jobs market supports a stronger US dollar, since expectations for a delayed or reduced pace of interest rate cuts make the greenback more attractive relative to other currencies. Historically, strong NFP readings and hawkish Fed expectations tend to pressure risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Binance Sees Aggressive BTC Buying Activity
Meanwhile, Taha also highlighted a sharp spike in Binance’s Net Taker Volume just before the release of the employment data. The metric surpassed $100 million, signaling a surge in aggressive buying activity.
The jump in Net Taker Volume on Binance reflects strong bullish sentiment among Bitcoin investors and traders. For context, Net Taker Volume measures the difference between aggressive buy and sell orders on an exchange, indicating which side – buyers or sellers – is dominating market activity.
Some analysts believe Bitcoin could see more upside due to its sustained positive price momentum in recent weeks. For example, BTC’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to move toward its upper trendline, a pattern that has historically preceded new all-time highs (ATHs).
That said, not everyone shares the bullish view. In a recent post on X, veteran crypto analyst Ali Martinez warned that Bitcoin has flashed a rare bearish signal that could push the price down to $40,000. At press time, BTC trades at $109,114, up 0.6% in the past 24 hours.
