Bitcoin is once again testing critical resistance levels, positioning itself for a potential breakout into uncharted territory. After weeks of consolidation between $105,000 and $109,000, BTC is flirting with an impulsive expansion that could carry the broader crypto market into a new phase of growth. The setup is drawing increasing attention from analysts and investors, many of whom believe a decisive move is imminent.
Top analyst Axel Adler shared key insights showing that Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap rose by another 1% in June, marking a new local high for this cycle. This rise in dominance highlights BTC’s role as the go-to asset for institutional capital, in stark contrast to altcoins, which remain primarily in the hands of retail traders.
The data suggests that while Bitcoin consolidates below its all-time high, it continues to absorb capital as a reliable store of value. With US equities at all-time highs and macro conditions favoring risk assets, a BTC breakout could trigger renewed confidence across digital markets, pushing altcoins to follow in its wake. However, without a clean breakout, volatility and uncertainty are likely to persist in the short term.
Bitcoin Dominance Strengthens As Price Discovery Nears
Bitcoin has remained the undisputed leader of the crypto market since late 2022, delivering over 500% gains and consistently outperforming most altcoins. Its resilience and strength have reaffirmed its role as the cornerstone of digital assets, especially as it flirts with a move into price discovery. Analysts are increasingly calling for a breakout, with some predicting BTC will surge past the $150,000 mark, while the most bullish forecasts push targets above $200,000. However, to confirm this next leg up, Bitcoin must first break decisively above its all-time high.
Axel Adler’s analysis highlights a critical factor driving Bitcoin’s momentum: in June, BTC’s share of the total crypto market cap increased by another 1%, reaching a new local peak for the current cycle. This continued rise in dominance emphasizes Bitcoin’s appeal to institutional investors, while altcoins remain largely dominated by retail activity.
Since the last altcoin season, Bitcoin has steadily reclaimed the market share it had ceded, reinforcing its image as the digital equivalent of gold. The emergence of public equities tied to Bitcoin—such as MicroStrategy and Metaplanet—has also changed the market structure. These vehicles offer leveraged exposure to BTC, absorbing speculative interest that previously flowed into riskier altcoins. This shift highlights a maturing market, where Bitcoin leads not only in price but in utility, liquidity, and trust.
BTC Consolidates Below All-Time High
The 3-day chart for Bitcoin (BTC) reveals continued consolidation just below the all-time high of $112,000. Price action remains confined between the $103,600 support and $109,300 resistance level, a range that has held since early June. Despite repeated attempts to break out, BTC has struggled to close decisively above $109,300, highlighting strong selling pressure near the top of the range.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains in a bullish structure. The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) continue to slope upward, indicating trend strength. The 50-day SMA is currently providing dynamic support near the $95,000–$96,000 level, but short-term price action is now concentrated well above this zone, signaling continued strength in the trend.
Volume remains relatively stable, though lower than during March and April rallies, which suggests indecision. Bulls need a convincing breakout above the $109,300 resistance to enter price discovery and set new highs. Until then, the $103,600 level is critical; a breakdown below it could expose BTC to further downside.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
