Iraq is no different to any other country in the region – anxiously waiting to see what happens next after America’s multiple bomb strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Where it differs is that Iraq, caught bang in the middle of the war between Israel and Iran, and now the United States, has to juggle its relationships with both Tehran and Washington DC.
The Shia Muslim-dominated government of Iraq is close to Iran, and Iran’s influence on Iraq cannot be underestimated.
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Shia militia groups in Iraq, while nominally answering to Baghdad, take much of their guidance from Tehran, so their positions must be taken into consideration by the Iraqi government.
At the same time, Iraq needs the United States because it provides stability and support in the region, and the US military remains the most potent force in stopping terror organisations like Islamic State from rejuvenating themselves.
There are at least 2,500 American personnel stationed in Iraq, and the US has major interests here, as it does across the Middle East and Gulf states.
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That US presence itself poses problems – Iran has threatened to attack American interests and personnel across the region.
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The US bases and personnel, like its airbase in Erbil in northern Iraq, could easily be attacked and are well within the distance of Iran’s short-range missiles.
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Further, the home-based Iraqi Shia militias are already on record as saying they will attack bases and personnel if the United States were to join in Israel’s war with Iran, which has now happened.
Iraq is furious that its airspace has been used by Israel to attack Iran, but is powerless to do anything about it.
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Equally, the Iraqi government’s writ does not run far with the militias, who could act independently, embarrassing the government, or worse, leading to attacks within Iraq itself.
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In a press conference given by the US defence secretary and US chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, the message to Iran and its proxies here in Iraq and in Syria was that any attack on American assets would be “a very bad idea”.
They couldn’t be clearer in their warning.
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President Trump, they pointed out, wants an end to the matter, but is more than prepared to carry out attacks on all hostile entities.
If Iran follows its publicly announced course of action to retaliate not just against Israel, but against American interests, military personnel, and even civilians here in Iraq and the wider region, it runs the risk of a serious degradation of the country if America were to strike back.
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Given that Iraq must play this delicate balancing act between the two powers, ultimately, it doesn’t want to be dragged into the conflict.
What it wants – and needs – is for diplomacy to resume.
