Since the local elections Reform UK has had no shortage of good polls.
But a new one suggests Nigel Farage’s party has a chance not only of winning the next election, but of claiming a decent Commons majority, too.
In February, Reform topped a Sky News/YouGov poll for the first time, with Nigel Farage’s party edging in front on 25%, Labour pushed into second on 24%, with the Tories on 21%.
But a fresh one from Ipsos puts Reform on 34%, nine points ahead of Labour on 25%, with the Conservatives a distant third on 15%.
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While the other parties are flatlining, Reform appears to be pushing boundaries.
Were these figures to be replicated across the country at a general election, with every constituency behaving the same way, then Reform could win as many as 340 seats, giving it a majority of 30, Sky News analysis suggests.
Labour could be reduced to 176 seats, down 236 on last year’s election, while the Tories would hit a record low of 12 seats.
But polling should always be taken with a pinch of salt and with the firm acknowledgement that there is not an election coming any time soon.
Conservative backbenchers might also tell you publicly that opinion polls are notoriously difficult to translate into seat numbers because voting percentages in individual constituencies can vary hugely from the overall average.
But the truth is that the symbolism of Reform UK topping another poll is likely to be noticed by MPs from all parties, especially backbench Conservatives who have actively been hoping their leader, Kemi Badenoch, can help them climb the polls and bring the party back into public favour.
Politics is a brutal game and when it comes to toppling underwhelming party leaders, the Tories are more ruthless than most. One wonders how many of these polls Mrs Badenoch’s party will allow her to endure.
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This poll is also a warning to Labour.
As the party approaches a year since its major victory, it will not have much to celebrate if these numbers are anything to go by.
According to this survey, only 19% are satisfied with the job Sir Keir Starmer is doing as prime minister, with 73% dissatisfied.
And the figure of 25% of voters intending to vote Labour is a level not seen since October 2019.
While abstract to much of the public, polling can often shape not only the chatter inside Westminster but how and when plots by MPs begin.
For Reform UK, this is a much-needed morale boost after a surprise resignation by their former Chairman Zia Yusuf, and then an almost immediate U-turn back into the party.
And Kemi Badenoch – who said during her leadership campaign that the Conservatives needed to go back to first principles and that this would take time – will be wondering, seven-and-a-half months after winning the leadership, how much time she really has left.
Ipsos interviewed a representative probability sample of 1,180 British adults aged 18+, via the Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel. Data was collected between 30 May-4 June 2025.
