Bearish exhaustion, neutral positioning, and a rare breakout in global liquidity are converging—setting the stage for what Real Vision’s Raoul Pal and chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts describe as a potentially “violent” upside move across Bitcoin and crypto markets. In a data-heavy episode, the two analysts unpacked a sophisticated suite of models developed over the past year, culminating in a live dashboard that just flipped green on all major risk indicators.
“We’re not overheated. We’re not stretched. In fact, everything is behaving exactly as it should in a breakout regime,” said Coutts, referring to his global liquidity risk score, a framework built from central bank balance sheets, money supply aggregates, FX reserves, and US net liquidity. “And when these breakouts happen, Bitcoin’s sensitivity to liquidity can increase by a factor of five or more.”
Pal, echoing the conviction, added: “From my work, it’s straight up from here. I think we’ll be surprised to the upside—especially by how fast stuff runs.”
Bitcoin And Altcoins Set To Explode
At the heart of the discussion was Coutts’ triad of real-time market indicators: global liquidity, derivatives risk, and network profitability. These scores form the backbone of what Pal dubbed Real Vision’s “ultimate signal” for navigating crypto cycles. All three are currently sitting in a “neutral” zone, signaling neither overheating nor excessive risk—precisely the backdrop, they argue, that historically precedes massive upward repricing.
One key metric: the liquidity multiplier. Coutts explained that in typical macro regimes, Bitcoin rises roughly 7% for every 1% increase in global liquidity. But in rare post-contraction periods—like now—that multiplier jumps as high as 20%–30%. “Bitcoin becomes hypersensitive,” he said. “Every new dollar of liquidity sloshing into the system has an outsized impact.”
Importantly, the data confirms that the recent rally off April lows is supported by fundamentals. “Liquidity broke out in early April, and since then Bitcoin’s up 40%. Global liquidity is up about 2%. That’s consistent with prior breakout regimes,” Coutts observed. “People don’t realize how clean this setup is.”
Beyond Bitcoin, the conversation turned sharply toward altcoins. Using newly constructed indices—including an equal-weighted top 200 altcoin tracker—Coutts identified early signs of a “structural” alt season. His custom-built advance-decline line and MACD-style oscillator suggest breadth is quietly turning up across the crypto complex.
“Back in March and April I said the bottom was forming in alts,” he noted. “We’re now starting to see higher lows on the breadth charts. The alt season oscillator triggered in late April. It’s not explosive yet—but the structure is bullish.”
Pal concurred, pointing to the ISM and macro risk indicators as lagging but supportive. “Alt season is tightly linked to disposable income and the ISM,” he said. “Once earnings pick up and the Fed starts cutting, people will move out the risk curve. And that’s what ignites the full rotation.”
Coutts’ other key insight: on-chain data confirms that neither long-term holders nor leverage are pushing the market into frothy territory. “The derivatives risk score is low. The unrealized profit metrics are neutral. There’s no positioning blowout. If anything, the market’s underexposed,” he said.
One name that stood out across metrics was Hyperliquid, the permissionless derivatives exchange that’s drawing institutional attention. “It’s my chart of shame,” Coutts admitted. “The trend triggered at $17—I missed it—and now it’s at $42. But it has one of the cleanest product-market fits we’ve seen in crypto. The tokenomics are tight. It’s trading at a reasonable multiple. And it’s burning tokens like a growth stock.”
Other chains flagged for strong network activity and undervaluation included Tron, which generates $9 million in daily fees largely via stablecoin transfers; and L2 ecosystems that are increasingly driving Ethereum’s resurgence. While daily active addresses on Ethereum’s base chain have grown only 2% over four years, L2 adoption and ETF inflows have started to shift positioning. “Nobody owned ETH. But now flows are building,” said Coutts.
The bottom line? According to Real Vision’s top crypto minds, nearly all major signals are aligned for upside.
“Liquidity is breaking out. Positioning is clean. The altcoin breadth is improving. Fundamentals are ticking back up. The FOMO index—if we dare call it that—is low,” said Pal. “You don’t get setups like this very often. Just don’t f*** this up.”
Coutts closed with a warning and a nod to discipline: “The indicators help us know when to lean in—and when to hedge. But right now, they’re not telling us to step back. They’re telling us the runway is open.”
At press time, BTC traded at $106,004.
