In the late-cycle quiet of mid-June, veteran market technician Tony “The Bull” Severino, CMT, posted a monthly Dogecoin (DOGE) chart that suggests the meme-coin’s exuberant bark might be fading into a tired whimper. The 1-month candle view, published on TradingView at 22:43 UTC+2 on 17 June 2025, fixes DOGE at $0.1694 — down roughly 2.3% on the session — and places three stark black arrows where prior macro-momentum crested, rolled, and ultimately bled into prolonged downside.
Is Dogecoin Just Playing Dead?
On the price pane, the first arrow sits at the January 2018 peak, when DOGE briefly tagged the two cent area before relinquishing nearly all of its gains. The second arrow marks the euphoric blow-off in May 2021, when the token spiked to just under seventy cents and then began an two year descent. The third arrow lands on the most recent cluster of lower monthly highs that capped out just under $0.26 last month and has since slipped back beneath the psychological twenty-cent threshold.
Beneath the candles, Severino overlays his preferred long-term MACD (labelled “LMACD”) with default histogram. The indicator — blue for the fast line, orange for the signal line — records an almost metronomic rhythm: steep positive crossovers during parabolic advances, followed by equally dramatic bearish flips as buyers are exhausted. The histogram’s tallest green bars in early 2017 and early 2021 coincide with those price spikes; in each instance, once the histogram faded to neutral and turned red, DOGE entered a multi-year drawdown.
Today, that pattern appears to be repeating. The blue LMACD line has just crossed below the orange signal line, printing a modestly negative histogram value of -0.0263 while the signal rests at 0.1704 and the LMACD itself at 0.1440. The configuration mirrors the early stages of the 2018 and 2022 downturns, the two previous rollover points Severino emphasizes with his arrows. In his own words, the monthly oscillator “looks like it wants to roll over and play dead,” hinting that the crossover may herald a deeper retracement toward historical support zones.
From a structural perspective, DOGE is now trapped between the former cycle’s floor near the five-cent mark and overhead resistance at the late-202 swing high around $0.48. The waning momentum on the LMACD suggests bears maintain the upper hand unless fresh demand arrives quickly enough to invalidate the incipient bearish crossover. A decisive close below the April low near $0.13 would open the chart to vacuum-like territory, as low as the cycle bottom at $0.0491.
Severino’s analysis, while strictly technical, lands at a moment when broader crypto liquidity is thinning ahead of the summer doldrums and as risk appetite shows signs of fatigue across digital assets due to postponed hopes for the next rate cut by the US Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran.
For long-term traders who monitor momentum more than memes, the monthly crossover carries more weight than any viral tweet. History does not repeat exactly, but for Dogecoin holders it has rhymed with unsettling precision every time the LMACD has curled over from an elevated crest.
Whether the canine-themed coin has truly curled up for a longer nap, or merely paused before another round of tail-wagging speculation, will depend on how price reacts should the histogram grow more negative in coming months. For now, the chart’s message is unambiguous: Dogecoin’s dominant trend has lost its pulse, and momentum traders may want to keep a close ear to the dog’s breathing before assuming it is only playing.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.168.
