After hitting a one-week low on Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to reclaim the key $104,000-$105,000 area as support, but some analysts have warned that a visit to its range’s lows could be in BTC’s short-term future if volatility continues.
Bitcoin to Continue Choppy Performance
On Thursday afternoon, Bitcoin dropped 5.5% to the $102,000 support fueled by the news of the Iran-Israel conflict. Amid the market pullback, the flagship crypto failed to hold its $108,000-$110,000 three-day range, falling to the mid-zone of its post-November breakout range.
Notably, BTC had just recovered from last week’s retest of the $100,000 level, reclaiming the key $106,800 area as support earlier this week. Daan Crypto Trades noted that the cryptocurrency “saw a clear trigger on that retest of the range high,” driven by the headlines of the Middle East turmoil, as it is “still quite a volatile and headline-driven market currently.”
Bitcoin took the liquidity above and below its local price range, the analyst explained, adding that it is “already starting to trade more like the choppy (pre) summer environment” he had forecasted.
Despite the drop, the analyst highlighted that the range high remains the key level for a larger move up:
I think the range high is a key area for the Bulls to hold on to. If not, I think there’s a case to be made for a local high to be put in and for the market to move back further within this range. At this point, I’m fairly certain that if price breaks either the current monthly high or low, it will keep trending that direction for the rest of June (and possibly beyond).
However, he suggested investors be cautious until BTC price breaks back above the range high convincingly and holds it as support on the higher timeframes. “Don’t chop yourself up in the next few weeks/months,” he warned.
Volatility Could Send BTC To Range Lows
Analyst Carl Runefelt from The Moon Show highlighted a potential double top pattern forming on BTC’s 4H chart, noting that if the price didn’t bounce from the previous descending resistance, reclaimed a week ago, it could further drop into the mid-zone of its range.
According to the analysis, if it loses the mid-range, BTC could risk a retest of the range lows, around the $90,000-$92,000 area. Similarly, market watcher Merlijn The Trader suggested that Bitcoin could fill the lower CME gaps if the war narrative intensifies.
BTC opened two CME gaps between the end of April and the start of May, situated at the $92,500 and $97,300 levels, respectively. Nonetheless, the trader considers that this could serve as a discount entry for investors, as BTC “already left higher CME gaps open,” signaling that a rebound to the levels is likely.
Moreover, he noted that Bitcoin is displaying the same structure as last year, which could hint at a massive rally brewing. In 2024, the cryptocurrency faced rejection from a multi-month descending resistance following its all-time high (ATH) rally, which set the Range high level.
According to the post, after the liquidity grab, BTC broke out of the key downtrend line, was rejected from the range high, and retested the descending resistance as support before a new rally.
In 2025, Bitcoin appears to be following this path, currently retesting the descending resistance after the breakout. “If you know the pattern, you know what comes next,” he concluded.
