Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will This Week’s CPI Report Trigger a Rally?

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Bitcoin traders are on alert this week as U.S.-China trade talks begin and key U.S. inflation and job reports are set to be released. If inflation heats up, it could shake markets and impact Bitcoin’s price. Everyone’s watching closely over what’s next for Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin slightly recovered today and is currently trading at $107,423, up 1.8% in the past day. It traded flat near $105,650 after forming a doji candle on Sunday. Its network activity has also slowed with daily on-chain transactions dropping to a one-year low, according to Blockchain.com. Altcoins like XRP and DOGE also fell 1-2%. But they have recovered slightly today and are trading in green. 

Bitcoin Stuck In a Tight Range

QCP Capital in a latest note shared that traders are keeping a close eye on Bitcoin as it stays stuck in a tight range heading into the summer. Even though implied volatility is at 1-year lows and looks cheap, actual price moves are even smaller. Historically, the short term volatility usually drops more by July, just like last year when Bitcoin struggled to break $70K and the volatility fell sharply.

They pointed out that if Bitcoin breaks below $100K or jumps above $110K, it could spark fresh interest in the market. But for now, there is no clear event to push it that way. While the recent macro news caused quick and short live reactions for a moment, but those moves quickly faded without any lasting effect.

Bitcoin Up For a Big Move In the Long Term?

After the strong US jobs report boosted the stock market and caused gold prices to fall, Bitcoin was mostly unchanged and showed signs of slowing down. The trading activity in Bitcoin futures is increasing and fewer investor are putting money into Bitcoin ETFs. Traders are now betting on Bitcoin to do well later in the year, not anytime soon.

Bitcoin might be gearing up for a move higher as fresh data shows a big liquidity zone around $106,736. These zones often pull price action like a magnet, and with BTC already testing $105K, a breakout could be on the way. 

New All-time Highs Soon?

Also, Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss has dropped 90% since June 4, which means that fewer investors are selling at a loss. This reduces the selling pressure and supports a potential rise. With Bitcoin showing no clear direction on the daily chart, analysts believe that it might dip further before making a move toward new all-time highs.

Analsyts at Swissblock warn that rising inflation could trigger volatility, and BTC may test support around $104K. Analyst Mickybull Crypto also sees a possible drop to $101,500 due to a head-and-shoulders pattern. If BTC loses the $100K level, it could face a deeper correction. ““Short-term correction, then new all-time highs,” he said. 

Analysts say that any price dip will be short-lived because the long-term uptrend is strong. Once it breaks the 2021 trendline, it could quickly climb to $140K–$150K. Bitcoin’s weekly chart also shows strong bullish signs with both a cup-and-handle and a bull flag pattern, pointing to a possible breakout above $109,000. These patterns suggest BTC could surge about 35%, reaching around $143,000.

Key Events This Week-

Market optimism is high as the U.S. China trade talks kick off in London, with Trump saying the meeting “should go very well.” All eyes are now on Wednesday’s US inflation report to see if the tariffs are pushing prices higher.  If inflation is hotter than expected, it could reduce chances of Fed rate cuts and shake up markets. The job reports on Thursday is also a key event which the traders are watching closely for any signs.