NATO needs a 400% increase in air and missile defence to maintain a credible deterrence, its secretary general will say in a speech in London today.
Mark Rutte will call for a “quantum leap” in collective security, warning threats facing the alliance “will not disappear even when the war in Ukraine ends”.
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It comes ahead of a summit in The Hague later this month, when the UK and its NATO allies are expected to agree to a Donald Trump-inspired pledge to spend 5% of GDP on defence and related areas.
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Speaking at Chatham House, Mr Rutte will say the investment plan is “grounded in hard facts”.
He will add: “The fact is, we need a quantum leap in our collective defence. The fact is, we must have more forces and capabilities to implement our defence plans in full. The fact is, danger will not disappear even when the war in Ukraine ends”.
Mr Rutte will argue that to maintain credible deterrence and defence, NATO needs “a 400% increase in air and missile defence”.
“We see in Ukraine how Russia delivers terror from above, so we will strengthen the shield that protects our skies,” he will say.
“Our militaries also need thousands more armoured vehicles and tanks, millions more artillery shells, and we must double our enabling capabilities, such as logistics, supply, transportation, and medical support.”
On threats against the alliance, he will warn: “Wishful thinking will not keep us safe. We cannot dream away the danger. Hope is not a strategy. So NATO has to become a stronger, fairer and more lethal alliance.”
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Mr Rutte is also due to meet with Sir Keir Starmer and visit Sheffield Forgemasters with Defence Secretary John Healey today.
The prime minister has committed to spend 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) on defence from April 2027, with a goal of increasing that to 3% over the next parliament.
Although the government’s language has been cloudy on the 3% figure, describing it as an ambition rather than a commitment, Sky News understands the UK will in fact agree to increase defence spending to 3.5% of national income within a decade as part of Mr Rutte’s push to rearm NATO and keep the US on side.
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As reported by our Security and Defence editor Deborah Haynes, Sir Keir will also likely be forced to commit a further 1.5% of GDP to defence-related areas such as spy agencies and infrastructure.
This would bolster total broader defence spending to 5%, in what is being described as the “Hague investment plan”.
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NATO countries have faced pressure from US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly hit out at European allies for not spending enough on defence and taking advantage of American taxpayers.
However, Sir Keir is also facing pressure at home on where his priorities lie, with many of his own MPs wanting to see more funding on welfare.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver her spending review on Wednesday, when health and defence are expected to be the winners in the process to allocate cash to government departments.
Cuts to the Department of Work and Pensions have already been announced, but other unprotected departments like the Home Office and Department of Communities and Local Government could be braced for a real spending squeeze.
