Anything other than a win for Labour would have been a humiliation in this contest.
It wasn’t any old local by-election – this was a contest where Labour knew it could act as a mini barometer of Sir Keir Starmer’s recent U-turn on winter fuel payments and become a test of how popular the politics of Nigel Farage are in Scotland.
Labour are power hungry and have, for a long time, set their sights on forming the next Scottish government.
The prime minister will this morning be breathing a sigh of relief to clinch this shock victory over the SNP and Reform UK.
This contest on the outskirts of Glasgow came at a time where Labour had been firefighting and grappling with polling suggesting they had blown their chances of ousting the SNP from power in Edinburgh after almost 20 years.
The SNP had a spring in their step during this campaign after a chaotic couple of years.
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First Minister and SNP leader John Swinney had apparently stemmed the bleeding after the infamous police fraud investigation, endless fallout over gender identity reforms, and last year’s general election where they were almost wiped out.
Scottish Labour win Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election as SNP suffer shock defeat
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election: Polls close and count begins to replace late MSP
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election: Polls open as public cast votes to replace late MSP
This result leaves them no further forward than 12 months ago with questions over the party’s strategy.
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Reform UK is very much in the Scottish picture now, finishing a few hundred votes behind the nationalists.
This is a party led by a man who barely registered any support north of the border for many years. A remarkable transformation.
The surge in support has spooked many because they know fine well Nigel Farage is only just getting started.
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One poll had Reform UK forming the next official opposition at Holyrood. After tonight, that might be a tall order but Mr Farage is shaking things up at the expense of the Conservatives.
The unpredictable nature of this contest may give us a taste of what is to come.
