The two-child benefit cap has been a raw nerve for the Labour party since long before they came to power.
It’s become increasingly exposed amid internal party divisions over the government’s forthcoming welfare reforms, which are expected to push another 250,000 people into poverty, including 50,000 children.
Lifting the cap could raise up to 350,000 children out of poverty, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
A left-wing rebellion over the issue just weeks after the general election saw seven of the party’s MPs lose the whip.
But in a bid to show he was still committed to tackling the problem – while also kicking the ball down the road – Keir Starmer set up a child poverty taskforce, which promised to look at policies to tackle the “root causes” of the issue. That taskforce was due to report in the “spring” – which should be any day now.
But now, as first reported by the Guardian, the Department of Work and Pensions has confirmed it has decided to push back publication until later in the year, to ensure its “ambitious child poverty strategy” can deliver “fully funded measures”.
I understand that means the announcements will be made as part of the autumn statement – and it looks like the prime minister is now backing a change on the cap.
Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan told Sky News on Friday that the issue was brought up by “lots” of attendees of a meeting of regional mayors and first ministers, and the PM said they’d “like to see some movement – it’s about when and how”.
Scrapping the two-child benefit cap is seen by charities as the most effective way of pulling children out of poverty. But doing so will come at a cost, estimated to be some £2.5bn.
The prime minister has previously suggested he would like to lift the cap, but only when the fiscal situation allows. This promise was one of the government’s key public declarations of responsibility to the financial markets.
But this week he’s signalled he’s prepared to U-turn over the other flashpoint policy – means testing the winter fuel allowance.
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Under pressure from concerned MPs and activists riled up by thousands of angry doorstep conversations during their recent local election debacle, he is prepared to move.
He’s justified that change by arguing it was right to look again at the measure “as the economy improves”. But if that’s the case – why not do the same for children as for pensioners?
Charities estimate the two-child benefit cap pushes another 100 children into poverty every day, which would affect another 20,000 by the time of the budget.
Some Labour MPs are prepared to criticise the delay publicly. Neil Duncan-Jordan told me: “Millions of families will be devastated by the delay in tackling the scandal of child poverty… the need to act is now.”
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But others, including Helen Barnard, from the Trussell Trust charity, have argued the delay might not be such a bad thing, posting on X: “This may be good news. Better a delayed child poverty strategy with measures to really protect children from hunger and hardship than one hitting the deadline but falling short on substance.”
It’s unclear how the government would fund such a change. This week, former PM Gordon Brown told Sky News’ Sophy Ridge they should be looking at a gambling tax to find the cash.
By giving ground now on winter fuel and hints on child benefit, Sir Keir may be hoping to head off the fermenting rebellion on his planned welfare cuts.
But those MPs angry about welfare cuts are also incensed about child poverty – and today’s news will likely only embolden their resistance.
