A quant has pointed out how the Mayer Multiple could suggest Bitcoin is still not overheated at $103,000 when compared to past trend.
Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Z-Score Is Still Under Its Mean
In a post on X, quant Frank has talked about how the Mayer Multiple of Bitcoin is looking right now. The “Mayer Multiple” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the BTC spot price and its 200-day moving average (MA). In other words, the metric represents the distance that the asset’s value has from the 200-day MA.
The 200-day MA is a level that’s generally considered as an important boundary between macro bullish and bearish trends in the cryptocurrency, so it can be useful to know how far the coin is from this line.
In the context of the current discussion, the Mayer Multiple itself isn’t of interest, but rather its Z-Score. The Mayer Multiple Z-Score is an oscillator that tracks how much deviation the indicator has from its mean value.
Now, here is the chart for the metric shared by the analyst:
As is visible in the top graph, the Bitcoin price saw a dip under the 200-day MA during the earlier market downturn, but with the latest recovery run, it has broken back above the line. It would seem, though, that the asset hasn’t gained too much distance over the level so far, at least in historical context.
And indeed, the Mayer Multiple Z-Score (bottom graph) confirms this, as its value is currently below zero. The zero level corresponds to the all-time mean of the Mayer Multiple. As such, a negative value like the current one suggests the metric is less than the average over history.
More specifically, 53% of all days have witnessed the ratio being higher than the latest level. Based on this, the quant notes that Bitcoin remains relatively cool even at its current $103,000 price.
From the chart, it’s visible that while the Z-Score is still negative, it’s much improved compared to the lows from earlier in the year. It’s possible that if BTC continues its bullish momentum, it will be challenging the zero level soon.
In the current cycle, the Mayer Multiple has been higher than its mean on a few occasions already, with the largest separation occurring in the rally from Q1 2024, where the Z-Score surged above the level corresponding to a standard deviation of 1.
So far, though, the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple hasn’t deviated to the same degree as during the bull run from the first half of 2021. It now remains to be seen whether the metric would heat up to similar levels in this cycle as well or not.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $102,700, down 1.5% over the last seven days.
