The NBA draft lottery provides an element of unpredictability. Just look at last year, when the Atlanta Hawks only had a 3 percent chance of winning the top pick but still secured it.
This year’s draft is largely considered to be the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes, with the Newport, Maine, native expected to be the number one pick no matter who wins Monday night’s lottery drawing in Chicago.
Mainers are going to root for whichever team lands Flagg, and he is expected to have tremendous upside wherever he ends up in the NBA.
The Charlotte Hornets, Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards each have the best odds to land that number one pick and would likely have Flagg at the center of their efforts to rebuild. But there are other teams in the mix with worse lottery odds but better positioning generally looking toward next season.
Here are four teams that, while surely happy to add a generational talent like Flagg, might not need him as desperately as some other teams might (but don’t tell their fans that). If these teams were to overcome their long lottery odds and take home the first overall pick, it almost wouldn’t be fair to the rest of the league.
Houston Rockets, 3.8 percent lottery odds
The Houston Rockets are in the lottery, but they aren’t a lottery team. They have a top-14 pick and a 3.8 percent chance at the first selection only because of a past trade. The Rockets don’t need to rebuild around Flagg or any other player, having finished second in the Western Conference this regular season with a 52-30 record.
Despite a disappointing early exit from the playoffs at the hands of the Golden State Warriors, the Rockets will head into next year with a stable of young talent. Adding Flagg, the 6-foot-9 phenom who led Duke University in every major statistical category this past season, would be an unexpected bonus for a team that has already moved its way toward the top of the Western Conference.
San Antonio Spurs, 6 percent lottery odds
The San Antonio Spurs had a difficult and injury-plagued season, losing both their star center and longtime head coach to health issues. But the Spurs’ future is as bright as any in the NBA.
San Antonio boasts the two most recent Rookies of the Year in Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama, both lottery picks in the past two drafts. Wembanyama missed significant time this season with a blood clot, and a stroke and the subsequent recovery concluded the storied career of coach Greg Popovich.
But Wembanyama is expected back for the start of next season, and two more first round picks for the Spurs in the June draft are just two reasons why the team that went 34-48 this season has a much brighter year on the horizon and for seasons to come.
The Spurs roster already enjoys an embarrassment of riches when it comes to young talent, and they would only get richer with the addition of Flagg. That would be great for the Spurs, and bad news for the rest of the league.
Philadelphia 76ers, 10.5 percent lottery odds
The Philadelphia 76ers were a bottom-five team this year. But when everyone on the roster is healthy, the team’s talent level is far from the bottom of the barrel.
Alarm bells may be ringing for 76ers fans after a hugely disappointing season in Philadelphia. But the team’s record doesn’t tell the whole story. While the 76ers had a dispiriting and injury-laden campaign, they retained an incredibly talented core. The trio of Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid and Paul George has tremendous ability to unleash when able to take the floor together.
If that core could remain healthy and play up to its potential, adding Flagg could prove to be a luxury rather than necessity that not only turns things around for Philly, but propels them back toward the top of the Eastern Conference.
