India’s airstrikes on Pakistani-controlled Kashmir after last month’s deadly militant attack on the Indian-administered side of the disputed region have raised fears of a dangerous escalation in the conflict.
It is not yet known what specific weapons were used in Wednesday’s early morning strikes which Delhi said targeted “terrorist camps”, though Islamabad said civilian infrastructure, including mosques, was hit.
However, India is reported to have deployed Rafale jets equipped with SCALP air-to-ground cruise missiles.
The nuclear-armed neighbours have been boosting their military capabilities since they clashed in a series of border skirmishes in 2019.
As of 2024, India has 36 Rafale jets, eight two-seat variants and 28 single-seat variants, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
The aircraft were acquired under a 2016 inter-governmental agreement between India and France, which included a weapons package. This package featured MICA and SCALP missiles.
Between 2020 and 2024, around a third of India’s arms imports came from France, said the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Pakistan claimed to have shot down five Indian aircraft, including three Rafale jets, on Wednesday following the Indian attack.
If this was the case, the Pakistani military would have used surface-to-air missiles (SAMs). According to IISS, Pakistan has more than 200 SAMs. Although, for context, India has well over 800 across their armed forces.
How do India and Pakistan rank?
India’s overall military capability significantly exceeds that of Pakistan.
It ranks fourth in the world compared to Pakistan’s 12th place, according to Global Firepower’s index, which considers a range of factors to assess military strength.
In terms of personnel, India has 1,237,000 active personnel in its army, 75,000 in the navy and 149,900 air force.
Pakistan has fewer than half that with 560,000 active personnel in the army, 30,000 in the navy and 70,000 in the air force.
India’s armed forces twice the size of Pakistan’s
Sky’s security and defence analyst Professor Michael Clarke said: “The Indian forces are about double the size of Pakistan’s forces… if it came to a war, India will win.”
He added: “If it’s below the level of a war, if it’s some sort of military confrontation, then Pakistan might think it could get something out of it.”
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The two forces have similar nuclear capabilities. India has an estimated 180 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan has around 170, according to US thinktank the Federation of American Scientists.
However, experts agree that it is unlikely that either side will use their nuclear powers at this stage.
Professor Clarke said: “Nuclear weapons would only be used by any country if its existence is at stake. Nothing that happens in Kashmir threatens the existence of Pakistan or India.”
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
