When JD Vance puts a positive spin on something… that’s a win.
The US vice president speaks his mind. He relishes in the shock factor.
And so his encouraging words about a “trade deal” with the UK will have pleased British officials both here in Washington and in London.
Speaking to UnHerd, Vance said: “I think there’s a good chance that, yes, we’ll come to a great agreement that’s in the best interest of both countries.”
Behind the scenes, for many weeks – since well before Donald Trump‘s ‘Liberation Day’ nearly two weeks ago – British trade negotiators led by the UK’s ambassador to the US, Lord Mandelson, have been negotiating as best they could with the US administration.
Their engagement with officials close to Mr Trump has facilitated ministerial meetings and White House-Downing Street phone calls.
I am told the UK is “now in the deal space”. Another source told me the UK was “in the foothills” of a deal. But it has not been straightforward, and there is some distance to go.
Despite the absence of a trade deficit with the US, and notwithstanding the fondness the president has for the UK, Britain was still dealt a 10% tariff plus 25% on cars.
Prior to Trump’s Liberation Day, there had been some hope that the UK would achieve some sort of deal to avoid them. But it was clear quite quickly that Mr Trump needed his ‘moment’.
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Many foreign diplomats, including the British, negotiating on their countries’ behalf, were also struggling to achieve substantive negotiations because even those close to the president were not clear on his views, his choices and where he would ‘land’ on issues.
This, incidentally, is an issue that can be applied to many aspects of this Trump administration. “It’s always quite speculative,” one European diplomat said to me.
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The clamour for engagement
The challenge since Liberation Day has been to re-engage the White House with the offers already laid out over the past few months. Many countries have been doing this. You can imagine the clamour for engagement.
A key question is whether the baseline tariff of 10% (applied to Britain – and now to everyone else following the 90-day pause) is negotiable. Mr Vance’s language seems to suggest it is.
Read more:
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A deal then between the UK and the US may be “in the foothills”. Watch for a deal with Australia too soon.
But to call it a ‘trade deal’ with the UK would be misleading. It’s an ‘economic deal’ to reduce the tariffs. It is, however, a large step forward for the UK, which has been trying to engage America in closer trade alignment since Brexit.
Questions remain
The details of any deal will be fascinating, and it is where the controversy will be. Will the UK reduce its trade barriers on US vehicles? Will this impact UK road safety standards?
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Will the UK make it easier for US farmers to sell in the UK? And if so, what will struggling UK farmers make of this? Will UK food standards (currently aligned with the EU) need to be lowered?
The desired ‘landing zone’ here for the UK would be improved market access for American farmers, but only in areas where the US meets UK standards.
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Watch too for a deal on digital services. At the moment, the UK taxes here hit US tech companies.
So we’re in the foothills, but there is a climb ahead still, and on an untrodden, unpredictable path.
