A majority of people who voted for Donald Trump oppose potential moves from congressional Republicans to cut Medicaid funding, according to new polling from the firm of Tony Fabrizio, the president’s 2024 campaign pollster.
Two-thirds of swing voters also said they disapproved of slashing the safety-net health program as part of the GOP’s larger effort to pass a party-line package of tax cuts, beefed up border security and increased defense spending.
These findings from Fabrizio Ward, the firm that conducted the survey, come as some Republicans say they oppose cuts to Medicaid to finance that package — but could have few other options than to do just that, given the massive deficit reduction targets lawmakers are facing.
“There’s really not a political appetite out there to go after Medicaid to pay for tax cuts,” said Bob Ward, partner with Fabrizio Ward, in an interview. “Medicaid has touched so many families that people have made up their minds about what they don’t want to see cut.”
House Republicans in particular are weighing substantial changes to Medicaid to help meet an $880 billion savings target as part of the filibuster-skirting reconciliation process. Democrats cite data from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office to argue that savings to reach that lofty goal would need to come from Medicaid, the state-federal health insurance program on which more than 75 million low-income Americans rely.
The polling of 1,000 registered voters between March 20 and March 24 suggests that Democrats’ messaging on the issue — which has centered around accusations that the GOP is raiding health care for poor people to finance tax cuts for the wealthy — could be effective in swaying key constituencies. The polling was conducted on behalf of the Modern Medicaid Alliance, of which groups representing insurers, patients, doctors and hospitals are members.
The survey results also could provide ammunition to the handful of Republicans across both chambers of Congress who remain skeptical about the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s ability to find spending cuts in programs under its jurisdiction without gutting Medicaid.
Trump has promised repeatedly not to sign a bill containing a “cut to Medicaid benefits” — most recently in a direct pledge to Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who needed those assurances to vote for the Senate budget resolution last week. Republicans are also considering energy and tech policy moves that could yield substantial savings.
There’s talk, too, of reducing the federal share of payments for states that have expanded Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act — a way to recoup savings without kicking the neediest recipients off the program. Democrats contend it will still result in cuts to Medicaid benefits, as states could respond to the changes by reducing services or raising taxes.
And then there’s discussion about rooting out waste, fraud and abuse in the Medicaid system to cut costs, but it’s not clear how much money that would actually save.
“I think you’d find support for getting rid of waste and fraud,” Ward said. “But the whole idea that we’re going to take away people’s health insurance and that’s not going to be a political problem for us, I don’t know where that comes from.”
