Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of family office Maelstrom, has issued a striking macro thesis: escalating tariff warfare, driven by a reassertion of US trade dominance under Donald Trump, will serve as a catalyst for massive liquidity injections and consequently ignite a prolonged crypto bull market. In an interview with crypto channel Coin Bureau, Hayes laid out his most detailed view yet on how tariffs, fiscal dominance, and central bank capitulation will shape the monetary regime in which digital assets thrive.
Crypto Bull Run Coming On Tariff Shock
“The global monetary order doesn’t work for China and the United States in its current situation,” Hayes said, arguing that the Trump administration’s aggressive reimplementation of trade tariffs—particularly against China—marks the acceleration of a process already in motion since the 2008 financial crisis. “Trump didn’t cause it… this was going to happen anyway—it just might’ve taken a little longer.”
Hayes emphasized that the core issue isn’t the tariffs themselves, but their downstream consequences. “These tariffs are great,” he said bluntly. “They’re accelerating a change that was going to happen anyways… and we know philosophically and ideologically that all major politicians in the US, China, EU, and Japan do not want to do austerity.” The implication, in his view, is clear: large-scale fiscal spending and monetary accommodation are the only politically viable responses to the economic pain tariffs will cause.
That pain, Hayes argued, will not be distributed evenly. China, which has long relied on export-driven growth, faces an existential dilemma. “What does America want? America wants China to not do the thing that raised 400 million Chinese out of poverty.” Hayes suggested that Xi Jinping cannot accept the fundamental restructuring of China’s economic model that Trump’s tariff regime demands. “Therefore, ultimately, I think there is no deal between the US and China,” he said, predicting that China will respond by allowing the yuan to depreciate sharply—potentially as far as 9 or 10 against the US dollar.
This macro backdrop—deglobalization, protectionism, and the breakdown of prior trade arrangements—is, in Hayes’ analysis, highly inflationary. And central banks, already under pressure to maintain cheap funding for governments, will be forced to respond. “We know that money will be printed. We know that the Fed is on board with providing the accommodation needed to make this transition as palatable as possible,” Hayes said, referencing Jerome Powell’s recent dovish rhetoric. “That’s what basically cemented my view of being very bullish in the medium term on crypto.”
At the March 2025 FOMC press conference, Powell signaled an end to quantitative tightening (QT) and floated the possibility of renewed balance sheet expansion—even with inflation still above the 2% target. “He said the inflationary impact of tariffs was transitory,” Hayes noted, “and therefore his easing bias is going to continue even if inflation shows up in CPI.” Hayes argued this is nothing short of fiscal dominance—a term describing when central banks subordinate monetary policy to government funding needs.
The structure of global bond markets is also a key concern. Hayes highlighted the fragility of the US Treasury market, which has become increasingly reliant on leveraged hedge funds conducting basis trades due to the retreat of traditional sovereign buyers. “Without these relative value hedge funds, there wouldn’t be a 4% Treasury yield—it’d be much higher,” Hayes warned. He predicted that the Fed will be forced into stealth QE, stepping in as the backstop for this fragile ecosystem.
As monetary policy reverts to accommodation globally, Hayes believes Bitcoin and crypto will begin decoupling from risk assets like the NASDAQ. “Bitcoin is going to start to look through all this tariff noise and focus on the certainty. The certainty is: money printing,” he said. He reiterated that “Bitcoin could easily go to $250,000 this year,” if the liquidity conditions align.
Hayes also reiterated his confidence in a new wave of altcoin performance—but only selectively. “I think Bitcoin dominance could rise to 70% before rotation begins,” he said, adding that altcoins without users, revenue, or real product-market fit will likely perish.
Still, the broader thrust of Hayes’ thesis is not about specific tokens but macro inevitabilities. Tariffs, in his view, are not aberrations but markers of a deeper unraveling of the post-Cold War financial consensus. “The politicians are going to print the money. That’s the only tool they have left,” he said. “And when they do, crypto will be the beneficiary.”
Notably, Hayes today urged the community to see the current market crash as an opportunity. Via X, he writes: “So close fam. Oh what shall I do, if BTC breaks below $76,500 my credibility will be in tatters … BUY THE F***ING DIP MOTHER F***ER!
At press time, leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin traded at $75,324.
