Senate Republicans have a new budget blueprint to jump-start President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda, and Majority Leader John Thune wants to adopt it by Saturday. It’s looking like he’ll make it happen, but things aren’t so clear in the House.
Here’s a rundown of where things stand:
Senators are digesting the budget plan. While we’re not seeing sufficient defections to tank it, some key players have questions. Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins, for example, says she’s undecided on a key aspect of the proposal — the “current policy baseline” idea that would treat an extension of the 2017 Trump tax cuts as costing nothing — and is concerned that the House’s budget guidelines would force Medicaid cuts.
What’s in it? In addition to making tax cut extensions costless, it would let Senate Finance draft another $1.5 trillion of tax relief. It would also green-light a $5 trillion debt-ceiling hike that GOP lawmakers hope will get them through the next election (though Sen. Rand Paul wants to force a vote to shrink that). Senate committees would have to cut the deficit by only a few billion dollars, while the House would have to do it by $1.5 trillion — underscoring the lingering political divides between Republicans in the two chambers.
Some Republicans believe Trump might be needed to seal the deal in the Senate.
“He had to do it for the House budget,” Sen. John Kennedy said. “He may have to do it for the Senate. But that wouldn’t be anything new.”
You will probably not be surprised to learn that the outlook is less rosy in the House.
Though Speaker Mike Johnson said he plans to push through the budget next week, he’s seeing defections over the Senate’s changes to what the House adopted in February. It comes after he lost control of the House floor this week in a clash with fellow Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna over proxy voting for new parents.
House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington ripped the Senate’s plan as fiscally irresponsible and predicted it wouldn’t fly with his colleagues.
Trump praised the Senate budget during his Rose Garden trade event Wednesday and later in a post on Truth Social, urging Republicans to “UNIFY.” He attempted to smooth out concerns from the Senate’s deficit hawks in a meeting on Wednesday morning.
Adding to the pressure is rising Republican anxiety about the midterms after Tuesday’s landslide loss in Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race and underperformance Florida’s special elections for two House seats. Some Republicans, including vulnerable members like Sen. Thom Tillis, are now cautioning that Trump’s shock-and-awe governing strategy could backfire at the ballot box and are calling for a major recalibration.
One bright spot for Trump and Republicans here: Johnson just grew his majority by two after swearing in Florida Reps. Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis Wednesday night. He can now lose up to three Republicans on a party-line vote.
What else we’re watching:
— Tariff action: As Trump rattled financial markets with his “Liberation Day” tariff announcement Wednesday, four Senate Republicans voted with Democrats to end his trade war with Canada. Now, Democratic Rep. Gregory Meeks wants to try to force a House vote on rejecting Trump’s latest slate of tariffs.
— Johnson fights to unjam the House: The speaker signaled Wednesday evening that he may be close to a breakthrough in the proxy-voting clash with Luna that paralyzed the House this week and threatened progress on Trump’s agenda. While Johnson said he still opposes Luna’s effort to allow proxy voting for new parents, he’s been in frequent contact with her behind the scenes over potential legislative options to resolve the situation.
Jordain Carney, Meredith Lee Hill, Brian Faler and Jennifer Scholtes contributed reporting.
