Bitcoin is currently holding above the $81,000 level, but bulls continue to struggle with reclaiming the $86,000 mark — a key resistance that must be broken to signal the start of a meaningful recovery. The lack of bullish momentum comes as macroeconomic uncertainty and escalating trade war fears continue to dominate headlines, creating an environment that favors the bears.
Global markets remain fragile, and high-risk assets like Bitcoin are feeling the pressure. Despite holding above a critical support zone, the inability to push higher has left traders cautious and sentiment subdued.
Top analyst Axel Adler shared new insights highlighting a potentially important signal. On the four major exchanges — Binance, ByBit, OKX, and Deribit — the average funding rate has recently dropped into negative territory and is now hovering just above zero. According to Adler, this setup has occurred five times in the current cycle: four of those instances led to price increases, while only one resulted in a further decline.
Bitcoin Faces Critical Test As Market Awaits Clarity
Bitcoin is facing a crucial test as it remains stuck between strong support and key resistance. Despite holding above critical levels, BTC has failed to reclaim momentum and push toward higher targets. The price continues to hover in a tight range, reflecting the broader indecisiveness in financial markets. Uncertainty has become the new norm, with investors hesitant to take bold positions.
Much of this caution stems from the macro environment. US President Donald Trump’s erratic behavior and unpredictable economic policies — particularly regarding tariffs — continue to shake global sentiment and increase pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. While BTC’s long-term structure remains intact, its short-term direction remains clouded by external forces.
In his analysis, Adler said several on-chain signals are quietly turning positive. He notes that the corporate sector has resumed accumulating Bitcoin, spot market selling pressure is low, experienced investors have stopped selling, and long-term holders (LTHs) are back in accumulation mode. These signs suggest that market conditions are normalizing after a period of overheating.
However, Adler believes the key issue now is the macro backdrop. Only positive signals from the Fed or the Trump Administration can reintroduce strong inflows — particularly through ETFs. A renewed cash influx could act as the catalyst for a major breakout.
Adler also emphasizes that major speculators need a clear target to aim for in the next quarter. He suggests a potential 50% price increase from current levels, putting a bold $130,000 target in sight. For now, Bitcoin’s next move will depend on whether macro conditions ease — or continue to weigh down an otherwise structurally strong market.
BTC Holds $85,000 As Bulls Face Crucial Reversal Point
Bitcoin is trading at $85,000 after a sharp drop earlier today that briefly pushed the price down to the $81,000 level. Volatility continues to shake the market, and bulls are now under pressure to defend $85K — a critical level that could determine BTC’s short-term direction. The current rebound offers a glimmer of hope, but a real shift in momentum requires more than just a bounce.
To reestablish control, bulls must push BTC above $88,000 in the coming days, a level that aligns closely with the 200-day moving average (MA) and the exponential moving average (EMA). A strong move above this range would signal renewed strength and could pave the way for a rally toward $90,000 and beyond.
However, if bulls fail to reclaim $90K soon, the market risks a deeper breakdown. A rejection below these indicators would likely invite renewed selling pressure, potentially dragging BTC back below the $81,000 level and into lower demand zones.
With volatility elevated and sentiment uncertain, Bitcoin’s ability to hold $85K and reclaim key technical levels will be crucial. The next few sessions may determine whether this is a recovery — or the start of another leg down.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
