Voters will head to the polls Tuesday in Wisconsin and Florida to decide two House seats and a state Supreme Court seat, races that have attracted immense spending and will be bellwether’s for the country’s political pulse in 2025.
With that in mind, Score is looking at a few key themes to decipher what tomorrow’s elections mean — and what they don’t — heading into the rest of the year.
The Musk effect
Elon Musk has played a key role in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race between liberal candidate Susan Crawford and conservative candidate Brad Schimel — both as a target for Democrats in campaign ads and as a heavy financial backer for Republicans.
Which of those two will resonate more with voters? Tuesday may provide some answers.
Musk ramped up his efforts in Wisconsin in the final days — and also threw some cash behind Florida’s special election — as Republicans have faced a string of special election losses, including a shocker in Pennsylvania last week.
Despite some high-dollar donations backing Democrats from the likes of Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and mega donor George Soros, no one is coming close to Musk. Two Musk-linked PACs have contributed a whopping $17 million in support of Brad Schimel, and Musk himself gave $3 million to the state Republican party.
Democrats have poured more into the race overall, though, putting nearly $40 million into television ads compared with $32 million from Republican groups, according to figures reported to AdImpact. Crawford’s campaign also outraised Schimel in the final stretch, raising $17 million compared to Schimel’s $7 million.
Democrats have used that to their advantage, cutting ads linking Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency to Schimel. A plane flying over Milwaukee on Thursday carried a banner reading “Go Home Elon. Vote Susan.”
This is Musk’s first major political test since helping bolster President Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign, where his America PAC spent hundreds of millions. And it’s also the first test for Democratic messaging against Musk, with the left using the race as a referendum against the world’s richest man and his campaign to slash government jobs and spending.
Can Democrats keep the momentum going?
Democrats have pulled off a couple big upsets so far this year in special elections. In state legislative races in Iowa and Pennsylvania, they flipped seats that Trump carried by double digits. And they’ve been able to hold seats in safe Democratic areas, too.
But Tuesday will be the biggest test yet. In a pair of Florida special elections for vacant congressional seats, Democrats Josh Weil and Gay Valimont have vastly outraised their Republican opponents, Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis, despite the districts being viewed as safe by the GOP.
Republicans are particularly worried about Fine. An internal poll last week from Trump’s pollster — Tony Fabrizio — showed Fine down three points to Weil, who has raised more than $10 million.
Democrats are insisting that Republicans are “panicked” about the race, but it will still be an uphill battle to notch a win in either district.
Meanwhile, in Wisconsin recent polling has shown a statistically deadlocked race between Crawford and Schimel.
Eyes on the GOP’s House majority
Republicans will maintain their control of the House after Tuesday’s elections, even if Democrats pull off a miracle and flip both seats in Florida. Still, it’s a razor-thin margin, and any losses would be a thorn in the side of Speaker Mike Johnson, who is navigating the caucus through crucial policy fights.
On Thursday, Trump pulled Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination to be U.N. ambassador after he determined he didn’t “want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise’s seat,” showing that Republicans are starting to sweat their slim margins.
If Republicans are able to keep both seats on Tuesday, that gives Johnson and Trump just a bit more breathing room to pass their most ambitious priorities.
Is the Republican brand taking a hit?
Much has been written about Democrats’ brand problem, but if Republicans underperform — and members of their own party expect it — expect Democrats to rub it in. Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis already laid the blame at Fine’s feet last week.
“Regardless of the outcome in that, it’s going to be a way underperformance,” DeSantis told reporters. “They’re going to try to lay that at the feet of President Trump. That is not a reflection of President Trump. It’s a reflection of a specific candidate running in that race.”
The Republican candidate isn’t too worried though, telling POLITICO “We’re going to be fine.”
Democrats are already painting the specials as a reflection of voter attitude toward Trump, and as evidence that the party will make gains in the midterms.
“A few weeks ago, they were too scared to face voters at town halls. Now, they are so scared they can’t even face voters at the polls,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Courtney Rice, following Trump’s decision to yank Stefanik’s nomination. “Doesn’t bode particularly well for 2026.”
Voter turnout
As is the case with all special elections, voter turnout will prove crucial in all of the races.
In Wisconsin, early voting totals were poised to surpass 2023’s high-profile race, with in-person early voting already ahead of that race and absentee ballots not far behind. Two years ago, Janet Protasiewicz took the victory in that contest — which determined the ideological makeup of the court.
Trump participated in a tele-town hall for Fine and Patronis to help get out the vote in Florida with early voting underway. The Democratic National Committee is investing in some last-minute get out the vote work, too, though it didn’t specify a dollar amount.
So far, Republicans have an edge in early voter turnout, per Decision Desk HQ data.
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