HIV deaths and infections will rise as a result of cuts to foreign aid, a study has warned.
Funding cuts could undo decades of progress and cause infections and deaths to surge to levels not seen since the early 2000s, researchers said.
They estimate there could be up to 10.8 million additional HIV infections in low and middle-income countries by 2030.
Meanwhile, the number of HIV-related deaths in children and adults could reach 2.9 million by 2030.
The study comes after Sir Keir Starmer’s decision to cut overseas spending from 0.5% of gross national income to 0.3% over the next two years in order to fund defence commitments. The move led to the resignation of Anneliese Dodds as international development minister.
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US President Donald Trump has ordered a pause in most US foreign aid spending and announced the country would withdraw from the World Health Organization.
In a paper published in The Lancet HIV, researchers said international donors have contributed around 40% of all HIV funding in low and middle income countries since 2015.
They said the UK, the US, France, Germany and the Netherlands account for over 90% of international funding.
However, they point out that all the countries have recently announced plans to cut foreign aid, leading to a projected 24% reduction in international HIV funding by 2026.
Through mathematical models the predominantly Australian-based researchers estimated there could be between 4.4 million and 10.8 million additional new HIV infections in low and middle income countries by 2030 and between 770,000 and 2.9 million HIV-related deaths in children and adults by the same year.
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“The United States has historically been the largest contributor to global efforts to treat and prevent HIV, but the current cuts to Pepfar [the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief] and USAid-supported programmes have already disrupted access to essential HIV services including for antiretroviral therapy and HIV prevention and testing,” said co-lead study author Dr Debra ten Brink of the Burnet Institute in Australia.
“Looking ahead, if other donor countries reduce funding, decades of progress to treat and prevent HIV could be unravelled.
“It is imperative to secure sustainable financing and avoid a resurgence of the HIV epidemic which could have devastating consequences, not just in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, but globally.”
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A spokesperson for the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said: “The UK provides significant funding to the global HIV response, supporting work to end AIDS-related deaths and prevent new HIV infections.
“We remain firmly committed to tackling global health challenges, not only because it is the right thing to do, but also because it will help us deliver on our Plan for Change in the UK by supporting global stability and growth.”
