The police fraud investigation examining the SNP could weaken the party’s chances at the 2026 Scottish election amid trust in its finances being dented, one of Britain’s leading political experts has told Sky News.
Professor Sir John Curtice said the long-running inquiry, dubbed Operation Branchform, could prevent John Swinney’s party from conducting an “effective ground war”.
Detectives have charged Nicola Sturgeon’s estranged husband Peter Murrell in connection with embezzlement of SNP funding and finances during his time as chief executive.
The pair’s Glasgow home was raided two years ago.
Sky News has learned that there are currently 10 senior officers working on the case – and so far, total police and prosecution costs have soared beyond £2.3m.
Ms Sturgeon, who announced this week she would quit Holyrood in 2026, remains a suspect after being previously arrested and released without charge.
The 54-year-old has always insisted she is innocent of any wrongdoing.
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Polling guru Sir John told Sky News: “Operation Branchform is a problem for the SNP, insofar as it does make it more difficult for them to raise money. Because there are question marks about whether or not the party could be trusted with donations that are coming in that being spent for the appropriate purpose.
“And the party, at the end of the day, will want to be able to fight the Holyrood election with as much financial heft and resource as it can possibly muster.”
The SNP has been in power since 2007 but has endured a period of instability since Ms Sturgeon resigned as party leader and first minister of Scotland in 2023.
Recent reports claimed the SNP has 58,940 members, down from 64,525 last summer.
Polls had suggested Scottish Labour could be heading for a historic win at the upcoming Holyrood election – but the party’s popularity has tanked recently, and the SNP is back on the rise.
Sir John, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University, suggested the SNP’s chances of clinging on to power could be on a knife edge – and the police probe could be a dealbreaker.
“A lack of financial resource may well make it somewhat more difficult for the party to run an effective ground war,” he added.
“It may not be able to spend so much money on advertising or on social media. Maybe that could cost it one or two seats, and as I have explained, because the prospect of there being a pro-independence majority at the moment looks as though it is literally on a knife edge that could matter.”
Sky News has obtained the latest costs to the taxpayer for the police and prosecution investigations.
As of 31 January 2025, a Freedom of Information request revealed policing costs had soared to at least £2,106,961.
The Crown Office, which is Scotland’s prosecution service, said in its FOI response that it had spent at least £206,366.
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Both law enforcement agencies told Sky News their probes were continuing.
The SNP did not address discussion about its finances.
A spokeswoman said: “As we approach the election, recent polling shows strong levels of support for the SNP under John Swinney’s leadership, as we deliver the progress people in Scotland deserve on the issues that matter to them.”
