President Donald J Trump wants to redraw the political map of the world to benefit “America First”.
Some may laugh at his ignorance of history and his boastful schoolboyish territorial ambitions.
Yet, in pursuit of his dream of fortress North America, he has already shown himself willing to tear up the rules-based order, which was agreed after the Second World War to stop countries from invading each other – at least in the democratic world.
He has already broken international treaties entered into by US presidents – including by himself in the case of trade with Mexico and Canada.
Since being inaugurated as US president for the second time in January, Trump has relentlessly spelled out what new conquests he is after.
He predicts the US will “get” Greenland “one way or the other”.
“We need Greenland for national security and even international security,” he explained unconvincingly.
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Trump is equally explicit about the Panama Canal: “We gave it to Panama. We didn’t give it to China. And we are taking it back.”
The company running the ports at the Atlantic and Pacific ends of the canal caved in quickly.
This month, Hong-Kong based CK Hutchinson sold out to a consortium led by the US fund managers Blackstone.
Then there’s Canada, the rich, independent G7 member nation, which Trump has repeatedly threatened to annex.
He has taken to referring to it prematurely as the “51st state”, while belittling its former prime minister as “Governor Trudeau”.
Who could be Canada’s next PM?
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In talks with Trudeau, he deliberately called into question the borders set in the 1908 Treaty signed by US president Teddy Roosevelt and Edward VII, king of Canada and the UK.
“The artificial line of separation drawn many years ago will finally disappear, and we will have the safest and most beautiful Nation anywhere in the World,” he tweeted on his Truth Social network last week, while promising Canadians would pay “much less tax”.
Trump’s aggressive language has upturned Canadian politics just ahead of a general election.
Canada is the US’s closest military partner and a fellow ally in NATO. It is the US’s largest trading partners, supplying 80% of its aluminium and the largest source of steel.
This only infuriates Trump who has slapped 25% tariffs on its metal exports and threatens more.
Canada and Britain fought a war against the US in 1812 to protect its independence.
Most Canadians have been horrified by Trump’s unwanted attention.
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The US national anthem is being booed at sporting events. American goods are being boycotted, right down to renaming Americano coffee “Canadiano”.
Meanwhile, Trump is instituting checks for those crossing the border.
Canadians were expecting a change of government and a swing to the right in the general election – due by October.
The outgoing Liberal government, led by Justin Trudeau, was tired after nine years in power. Difficulties with housing and the cost of living were the voters’ main concerns.
The Conservative Party of Pierre Poilievre, with his populist “Canada First” slogan, was 25% ahead.
Then, Trump took office, and Trudeau stood down as Liberal Party leader.
This week a political outsider was chosen with an overwhelming 85.9% of the vote as the new Liberal Party leader, automatically taking over as temporary prime minister.
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Mark Carney, an economist who served previously as governor of the Bank of Canada and as the first foreigner governor of the Bank of England, is now in charge.
The Liberals have shot up to neck and neck with the Conservatives, on 35% and 36% respectively, in the latest Nanos Research tracking poll.
Carney is wasting no time tearing into Trump’s plan in what he calls these “dark times”.
“We didn’t ask for this fight,” he admitted with typical Canadian understatement, but “the Americans want our resources, our water, our land and our country”.
He promised: “America is not Canada. And Canada never ever will be part of America in any way, shape or form.”
Carney is backing reciprocal tariffs against the US, even though he deplores them in principle, and predicts “Canada will win”.
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Carney has never been an elected politician. He is not even currently a member of the Canadian parliament.
But, as a senior insider he piloted Canada through the 2007-2008 recession and guided the UK through Brexit, in spite of being fiercely opposed to it.
He is well qualified to lead Canada in its unwanted economic war with the US.
He is probably helped by coming late to the unpopular Liberal Party and keeping his distance from Trudeau.
Carney and his English wife Diana are keen environmentalists but, mindful of Canada’s vast oil and gas reserves, he no longer supports a carbon tax.
Inevitably, his main opponent, the working-class hard man Poilievre, is attacking Carney as a member of the global elite.
Like Trump during his campaign, the Conservative leader is courting the podcast “manosphere”.
Carney argues that Poilievre’s previous admiration for Trump and his online bros should be a liability: “A person who worships at the altar of Donald Trump will kneel before him, not stand up to him.”
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Some voices on the Conservative right are arguing that Canada should accept its mutual dependence with its southern neighbour and move closer to Trump in a North American alliance.
Somewhat in contradiction, they also insist that Canada could preserve its technical independence if it goes in with Trump.
Carney was only sworn in as prime minister last Friday and is expected to call an election imminently.
For now, the momentum is with him.
His victory would be a major rebuff to Trump – although the implications are terrifying.
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Trump prefers to use economic bullying to get his way, but he has already shown with Ukraine that he is prepared to withdraw military and intelligence cooperation from allies to increase pressure.
Canada and the US currently have integrated security cooperation to protect their continent.
To Trump, they are freeloaders since Canada is one of NATO’s under-spenders on defence.
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Canada has a population of 40 million, with 63,500 in the military. The US population is 340 million with 1.4 million in its armed forces.
At the very least, Trump could emulate Putin if his territorial ambitions are frustrated and start a military build-up along the border. Incursions and fighting could not be ruled out after that.
The UK shares a head of state and is ultimately a closer ally of Canada than the US.
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The annexation of Canada by the US would vindicate Trump’s vision of the world as a place to be carved up by major powers led by autocratic leaders.
The Trump administration is currently enabling Russia to “get” a significant portion of Ukraine. It follows that the US is trying to grab land from its neighbours.
And if Putin and Trump can do it, it seems unlikely that Trump would risk war if Xi moves against Taiwan.
The worst may not happen. But it could.
The world is long past the point where Donald Trump must be taken both literally and seriously.
